5 meetings sit in the record, first in 2019, aggregate 10-13. The latest was 2026, 3-3 in AFC Champions League. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1656 and 1942 — 286 points — for a 11.7% / 20.2% / 68.0% split.
Elo expected shares: 21.9% and 78.1%. Top of the distribution: Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 68.0%. Point estimate: 1-3. Neither component contradicts the other: Al-Hilal Saudi FC leads 1.93-1.92 forward and 0.58-1.38 back. Most and least likely outcomes are 56.3 points apart. The two ratings differ by 286 points. The higher rating belongs to the away side. In absolute terms: Al Sadd 1.92/1.38, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.93/0.58 on attack and defence. Expected goals 1.66-3.60. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Al-Hilal Saudi FC holds a 47.8-point edge on the next outcome. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Flat distribution — 1-3 tops it at just 6.7%. Neither figure is thin: 425 and 413 matches respectively sit behind them. Final score: 0-2. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +156 and +442. A decisive result carries 79.7% against 20.2% for the draw.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
18 goals for and 12 against accompanied Al Sadd's three wins and two defeats across five outings. A 3-2 defeat at home to Al-Arabi SC (9 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 6-2 away to Qatar SC on 28 August.
The 9 October fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Al Sadd with Al-Arabi SC. Al Sadd lost 2-3 at home, netting two goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Esteghlal FC (AFC Champions League), Al Sadd finished 0-3 on 14 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 10 September: Al Sadd won 6-3 against Al-Sailiya away from home in Qatar Stars League, scoring six goals and allowing three. Against Al-Gharafa in Qatar Stars League, Al Sadd scored four and conceded one on 5 September; the at home result was 4-1. Al Sadd's away from home game on 28 August (Qatar Stars League) ended 6-2 against Qatar SC, with six goals for and two against.
13 goals for and five against accompanied Al-Hilal Saudi FC's four wins and one defeat across five outings. A 3-2 win at home to Al-Ittihad FC (10 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 6-0 away to Al Taawon on 12 September.
Saudi Pro League, 10 October brought a home meeting with Al-Ittihad FC; Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hosted Al-Gharafa on 15 September (AFC Champions League) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Al Taawon hosted Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Saudi Pro League) on 12 September. For Al-Hilal Saudi FC, the score was 6-0: six goals scored, zero allowed. 0-2 was Al-Hilal Saudi FC's result against NEOM on 7 September (Saudi Pro League), playing at home; Al-Hilal Saudi FC lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 4 September fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al-Hilal Saudi FC with Al Shabab. Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 2-0 away from home, netting two goals while conceding zero.
Previous meetings in our records: a 3-3 draw at Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 13 April and a 3-1 home win for Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 21 October 2025.
After the match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Sadd 2-0 at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha on 13 October 2026. Ollie Watkins opened the scoring in the 40th minute for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, set up by Sultan Mandash, to make it 1-0. Rúben Neves added to the tally from the penalty spot 65 minutes into the game for Al-Hilal Saudi FC to make it 2-0. Agustin soria (18'), Mohamed Kanno (35') and Simone Inzaghi (98') were booked. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 68% for a win in this pairing. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. Expected goals put the gap at 0.81 to 2.47. one yellow card went to Al Sadd. The substitution total for Al Sadd was four. two yellow cards went to Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The substitution total for Al-Hilal Saudi FC was five. Al-Hilal Saudi FC kept their opponents scoreless.