Match

Công An Nhân Dân has 3 rated matches behind their rating — thin. The split reads 21.4% / 23.8% / 54.8%.

The match finished 0-1. Attack/defence pairs: 0.95/1.04 and 1.44/0.94. Công An Nhân Dân's number leans on a 3-match sample. 54.8% goes to Kashima, the model's lean. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -16 and +170. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The distribution runs from 54.8% down to 21.4%. Someone wins 76.2% of the time by this model. There is no trade-off to weigh: Kashima scores at the higher rate (1.44 to 0.95) and concedes at the lower (0.94 to 1.04). Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 9.5%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. A 186-point spread sits between the two figures. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Expected shares 33.3% against 66.7% on Elo. The xG line reads 1.33 to 2.02. Point estimate: 1-2. The gap between first and second outcome is 31.0 points, Kashima ahead of the draw.

Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.

Match Report

Before the match

Công An Nhân Dân came into the game with one win and one defeat from their last two outings, scoring three goals and conceding four. A 4-1 defeat away to Gamba Osaka (15 September) was their most recent result.

Gamba Osaka hosted Công An Nhân Dân (AFC Champions League) on 15 September. For Công An Nhân Dân, the score was 1-4: one goal scored, four allowed. 2-0 was Công An Nhân Dân's result against Adelaide United on 11 August (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Công An Nhân Dân won, with two scored to zero conceded.

13 goals for and seven against accompanied Kashima's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. On 9 October, Kashima recorded a 2-0 win hosting Gamba Osaka; their biggest win in that spell was 7-1 at home to Newcastle Jets on 15 September.

Kashima's at home game on 9 October (J1 League) ended 2-0 against Gamba Osaka, with two goals for and zero against. On 19 September, Kawasaki Frontale faced Kashima in J1 League: Kashima drew 3-3 away from home, having scored three and conceded three. AFC Champions League, 15 September brought a home meeting with Newcastle Jets; Kashima won 7-1, a return of seven goals scored and one conceded. Kashima visited Vissel Kobe on 11 September (J1 League) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Urawa travelled to face Kashima (J1 League) on 6 September. For Kashima, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed.

After the match

Kashima edged past Công An Nhân Dân 1-0 at Hang Day Stadium, Hanoi on 13 October 2026. Leygley Adou Minh (an own goal) opened the scoring 61 minutes into the game for Kashima to make it 1-0. Stefan Mauk (24'), Matheus Bueno (24'), Nguyen Quang Hai (55') and Doan Van Hau (63') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Kashima 186 points stronger than Công An Nhân Dân. Kashima are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 J1 League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.74 to 0.59. Công An Nhân Dân: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Công An Nhân Dân. one yellow card went to Kashima. The substitution total for Kashima was five. Kashima conceded no goals.