On record: 2 meetings from 2019, 1-5 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2019, 0-2 in AFC Champions League. History aside, the live ratings of 1515 and 1498 drive a 49.1% / 25.1% / 25.8% distribution.
74.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 61.6% to 38.4%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +15 and -2. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 12.5%. The leading outcome clears the second by 23.3 points. Most likely single result is Buriram United on 49.1%. Honours split: 0.89 forward for Beijing Guoan, 0.93 back for Buriram United. Outcomes span 24.0 points. Point estimate: 1-1. Higher rating: the home side. Attack/defence pairs: 0.73/0.93 and 0.89/1.33. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Result on the day: 0-1. A 17-point difference on the rating scale. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 53 and 22 matches. Goal expectation splits 1.44 to 1.11.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Buriram United's previous five results comprised one win, three draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 5 conceded. Johor Darul Takzim FC were their latest opponents, away on 15 September: a 1-1 draw.
1-1 was Buriram United's result against Johor Darul Takzim FC on 15 September (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Buriram United drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 18 April fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Buriram United with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Buriram United lost 2-3 at home, netting two goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Melbourne City (AFC Champions League), Buriram United finished 0-0 on 10 March. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 3 March: Buriram United drew 1-1 against Melbourne City away from home in AFC Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Shanghai Shenhua in AFC Champions League, Buriram United scored two and conceded zero on 17 February; the at home result was 2-0.
Beijing Guoan's previous five results comprised one win and four defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 16 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 3-1 win at home to Pohang Steelers on 15 September.
On 15 September, Pohang Steelers faced Beijing Guoan in AFC Champions League: Beijing Guoan won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one. AFC Champions League, 11 July 2021 brought an away meeting with Kawasaki Frontale; Beijing Guoan lost 0-4, a return of zero goals scored and four conceded. Beijing Guoan hosted Ceres on 8 July 2021 (AFC Champions League) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Daegu FC travelled to face Beijing Guoan (AFC Champions League) on 5 July 2021. For Beijing Guoan, the score was 0-3: zero goals scored, three allowed. 0-5 was Beijing Guoan's result against Daegu FC on 2 July 2021 (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Beijing Guoan lost, with zero scored to five conceded.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-0 home win for Beijing Guoan on 24 April 2019 and a 3-1 away win for Beijing Guoan on 9 April 2019.
After the match
Beijing Guoan edged past Buriram United 1-0 at Chang Arena, Buriram on 13 October 2026. Fabio Abreu opened the scoring 79 minutes into the game for Beijing Guoan, set up by Lin Liangming, to make it 1-0. Paulinho (31'), Bai Yang (57'), Guilherme Ramos (73') and Sai Erjini'ao (91') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Buriram United just 17 rating points ahead of Beijing Guoan, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Beijing Guoan only a 25.8% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1 to 0.68. one yellow card went to Buriram United. Buriram United: five substitutions. The card tally for Beijing Guoan was three yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Beijing Guoan. A clean sheet for Beijing Guoan.