Rated 1442 and 1576, these two produce a 27.5% / 25.6% / 46.9% split. Daejeon Citizen is ahead on each half — 1.27 to 0.84 in attack, 0.96 to 1.29 in defence.
74.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -58 and +76. Neither figure is thin: 73 and 16 matches respectively sit behind them. Raw profiles are 0.84 and 1.29 against 1.27 and 0.96. The three results cover 21.3 points. On expected goals the model has it 1.19 against 2.21. Its point estimate is 1-2. The gap between first and second outcome is 19.4 points, Daejeon Citizen ahead of SHANGHAI SIPG. The rating gap itself is 134 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Top of the distribution: Daejeon Citizen, 46.9%. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 9.7% — not a strong call. Elo expected shares: 40.2% and 59.8%. Final score: 1-1.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and seven against accompanied SHANGHAI SIPG's one win, three draws and one defeat across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. On 15 September, SHANGHAI SIPG recorded a 6-4 win visiting Ratchaburi.
The 15 September fixture (AFC Champions League) paired SHANGHAI SIPG with Ratchaburi. SHANGHAI SIPG won 6-4 away from home, netting six goals while conceding four. Playing at home against Ulsan Hyundai FC (AFC Champions League), SHANGHAI SIPG finished 0-0 on 18 February. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 11 February: SHANGHAI SIPG drew 0-0 against Gangwon FC away from home in AFC Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Johor Darul Takzim FC in AFC Champions League, SHANGHAI SIPG scored zero and conceded zero on 9 December 2025; the away from home result was 0-0. SHANGHAI SIPG's at home game on 25 November 2025 (AFC Champions League) ended 1-3 against FC Seoul, with one goal for and three against.
Daejeon Citizen's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 6 conceded, with no defeats. Jeonbuk Motors were their latest opponents, at home on 9 October: a 2-1 win.
Against Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Daejeon Citizen scored two and conceded one on 9 October; the at home result was 2-1. Daejeon Citizen's away from home game on 20 September (K League 1) ended 1-1 against Incheon United, with one goal for and one against. On 15 September, Kyoto Sanga faced Daejeon Citizen in AFC Champions League: Daejeon Citizen won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. K League 1, 12 September brought a home meeting with Pohang Steelers; Daejeon Citizen drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Daejeon Citizen hosted FC Anyang on 9 September (K League 1) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded.
After the match
SHANGHAI SIPG and Daejeon Citizen drew 1-1 on 13 October 2026. Prince Ampem opened the scoring 49 minutes into the game for SHANGHAI SIPG to make it 1-0. Diogo Oliveira levelled it 54 minutes into the game for Daejeon Citizen, set up by Jeong Jae-hee, to make it 1-1. Wei Zhen (47'), João Victor (47') and Park Kyu-Hyun (60') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Daejeon Citizen 134 points stronger than SHANGHAI SIPG. SHANGHAI SIPG are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form. Daejeon Citizen are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 K League 1 and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. one yellow card went to SHANGHAI SIPG. The substitution total for SHANGHAI SIPG was five. two yellow cards went to Daejeon Citizen. The substitution total for Daejeon Citizen was five.