On file: 3 previous meetings dating to 2021, 8-6 on goals. Last time: 2025, 2-5 in AFC Champions League. The present numbers are 1449 against 1591, and the model turns that into 26.5% / 25.3% / 48.2%.
Spread thin across outcomes, 0-1 highest at 12.7%. Expected shares 39.1% against 60.9% on Elo. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 49 and 54 matches. Johor Darul Takzim FC is ahead on each half — 0.96 to 0.73 in attack, 0.85 to 1.25 in defence. The single-scoreline output is 0-1. The match finished 0-2. The distribution runs from 48.2% down to 25.3%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Someone wins 74.7% of the time by this model. 48.2% goes to Johor Darul Takzim FC, the model's lean. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -51 and +91. Attack/defence pairs: 0.73/1.25 and 0.96/0.85. Expected goals come out at 0.93 to 1.62. Johor Darul Takzim FC leads the distribution by 21.7 points over Pohang Steelers. A 142-point spread sits between the two figures.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Pohang Steelers's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 9 conceded. Incheon United were their latest opponents, away on 9 October: a 3-0 defeat.
0-3 was Pohang Steelers's result against Incheon United on 9 October (K League 1), playing away from home; Pohang Steelers lost, with zero scored to three conceded. The 20 September fixture (K League 1) paired Pohang Steelers with FC Seoul. Pohang Steelers won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Beijing Guoan (AFC Champions League), Pohang Steelers finished 1-3 on 15 September. Their score comprised one goal, against three from the opposition. 12 September: Pohang Steelers drew 2-2 against Daejeon Citizen away from home in K League 1, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Pohang Steelers scored zero and conceded zero on 9 September; the at home result was 0-0.
Johor Darul Takzim FC came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding five. On 15 September, Johor Darul Takzim FC recorded a 1-1 draw hosting Buriram United.
Johor Darul Takzim FC's at home game on 15 September (AFC Champions League) ended 1-1 against Buriram United, with one goal for and one against. On 17 April, Al-Ahli Jeddah faced Johor Darul Takzim FC in AFC Champions League: Johor Darul Takzim FC lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. AFC Champions League, 11 March brought an away meeting with Sanfrecce Hiroshima; Johor Darul Takzim FC lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Johor Darul Takzim FC hosted Sanfrecce Hiroshima on 4 March (AFC Champions League) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Vissel Kobe travelled to face Johor Darul Takzim FC (AFC Champions League) on 17 February. For Johor Darul Takzim FC, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed.
Previous meetings in our records: a 5-2 home win for Johor Darul Takzim FC on 18 February 2025 and a 2-0 away win for Pohang Steelers on 1 July 2021.
After the match
Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Pohang Steelers 2-0 at Sangju Civic Stadium, Sangju on 13 October 2026. Marcos Guilherme opened the scoring 49 minutes into the game for Johor Darul Takzim FC, set up by Shahab Zahedi, to make it 1-0. Marcos Guilherme added to the tally late on, in the 89th minute for Johor Darul Takzim FC to make it 2-0. Jeon Min-kwang (46') was sent off. Shahab Zahedi (10'), Juninho Rocha (48') and Cristian Glauder (74') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Johor Darul Takzim FC 142 points stronger than Pohang Steelers. Expected goals put the gap at 0.38 to 2.53. The card tally for Pohang Steelers was one yellow card and one red card. five changes were recorded for Pohang Steelers. Johor Darul Takzim FC picked up two yellow cards. Johor Darul Takzim FC: four substitutions. Johor Darul Takzim FC conceded no goals.