1479 plays 1371; the model splits it 62.1% / 21.9% / 16.0%. Kyoto Sanga is ahead on each half — 0.89 to 0.78 in attack, 1.03 to 1.23 in defence.
The underlying goal expectation is 1.62 for Kyoto Sanga, 1.08 for Ratchaburi. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.8%. Outcomes span 46.1 points. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The gap between first and second outcome is 40.2 points, Kyoto Sanga ahead of the draw. Versus the 1500 seed: -21 and -129. Neither figure is thin: 11 and 8 matches respectively sit behind them. A 108-point difference on the rating scale. Attack/defence pairs: 0.89/1.03 and 0.78/1.23. The higher-rated side expects 73.0% of the points; the other side 27.0%. 62.1% goes to Kyoto Sanga, the model's lean. The tie closed out 1-0. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Scorelines above 8%: 4. A decisive result carries 78.1% against 21.9% for the draw.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
four goals for and eight against accompanied Kyoto Sanga's one win and four defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. On 10 October, Kyoto Sanga recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Machida Zelvia.
Machida Zelvia travelled to face Kyoto Sanga (J1 League) on 10 October. For Kyoto Sanga, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 2-1 was Kyoto Sanga's result against Fagiano Okayama on 19 September (J1 League), playing away from home; Kyoto Sanga won, with two scored to one conceded. The 15 September fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Kyoto Sanga with Daejeon Citizen. Kyoto Sanga lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Kashiwa Reysol (J1 League), Kyoto Sanga finished 2-3 on 11 September. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition. 6 September: Kyoto Sanga lost 0-2 against FC Tokyo away from home in J1 League, scoring zero goals and allowing two.
Ratchaburi: two draws and three defeats over five games; four goals scored, 13 conceded, failing to score in four of those games, without a win. Latest: a 6-4 defeat at home to SHANGHAI SIPG on 15 September.
On 15 September, SHANGHAI SIPG faced Ratchaburi in AFC Champions League: Ratchaburi lost 4-6 at home, having scored four and conceded six. AFC Champions League, 7 July 2021 brought an away meeting with Johor Darul Takzim FC; Ratchaburi drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Ratchaburi hosted Pohang Steelers on 4 July 2021 (AFC Champions League) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Nagoya Grampus hosted Ratchaburi (AFC Champions League) on 1 July 2021. For Ratchaburi, the score was 0-3: zero goals scored, three allowed. 0-4 was Ratchaburi's result against Nagoya Grampus on 28 June 2021 (AFC Champions League), playing at home; Ratchaburi lost, with zero scored to four conceded.
After the match
Kyoto Sanga edged past Ratchaburi 1-0 at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kameoka on 13 October 2026. Temma Matsuda opened the scoring late on, in the 88th minute for Kyoto Sanga, set up by Haruki Arai, to make it 1-0. Jesse Curran (11') and Roque Mesa (79') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Kyoto Sanga 108 points stronger than Ratchaburi. Kyoto Sanga: 62.1% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Kyoto Sanga: five substitutions. Ratchaburi: two yellow cards. three changes were recorded for Ratchaburi. Kyoto Sanga kept their opponents scoreless.