Too close to call: 38.5% / 27.5% / 34.0%, top outcome 38.5%.
As a single number the model says 1-2. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -41 and +9. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 8.6%. The leading outcome clears the second by 4.5 points. The Newcastle Jets figure is drawn from 4 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The model's preferred outcome is Newcastle Jets at 38.5%. The away side is rated higher. By expected share of the points: 52.2% and 47.8%. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. In absolute terms: Newcastle Jets 1.02/1.40, Gamba Osaka 1.08/1.10 on attack and defence. Neither component contradicts the other: Gamba Osaka leads 1.08-1.02 forward and 1.10-1.40 back. The model gives 72.5% to someone winning. Top to bottom the spread is only 11.0 points. It ended 1-3. Expected goals come out at 1.66 to 2.05. Rating separation comes to 50 points.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Newcastle Jets: one win and two defeats over three games; five goals scored, 12 conceded. Kashima were their latest opponents, away on 15 September: a 7-1 defeat.
Against Kashima in AFC Champions League, Newcastle Jets scored one and conceded seven on 15 September; the away from home result was 1-7. Newcastle Jets's away from home game on 19 February 2019 (AFC Champions League) ended 1-4 against Kashima, with one goal for and four against. On 12 February 2019, Persija Jakarta faced Newcastle Jets in AFC Champions League: Newcastle Jets won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one.
four goals for and eight against accompanied Gamba Osaka's one win and four defeats across five outings, failing to score in four of those games. On 9 October, Gamba Osaka recorded a 2-0 defeat visiting Kashima; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Công An Nhân Dân on 15 September.
J1 League, 9 October brought an away meeting with Kashima; Gamba Osaka lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Gamba Osaka hosted Vissel Kobe on 20 September (J1 League) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Công An Nhân Dân travelled to face Gamba Osaka (AFC Champions League) on 15 September. For Gamba Osaka, the score was 4-1: four goals scored, one allowed. 0-2 was Gamba Osaka's result against FC Tokyo on 12 September (J1 League), playing at home; Gamba Osaka lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 6 September fixture (J1 League) paired Gamba Osaka with JEF United Chiba. Gamba Osaka lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two.
After the match
Gamba Osaka beat Newcastle Jets 3-1 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle on 13 October 2026. Nikos Vergos opened the scoring in the 32nd minute for Newcastle Jets, set up by Xavier Bertoncello, to make it 1-0. Yusei Toshida levelled it in the 40th minute for Gamba Osaka, set up by Eli Adams, to make it 1-1. Deniz Hümmet put Gamba Osaka in front 73 minutes into the game, set up by Eli Adams, to make it 2-1. Welton added to the tally late on, in the 86th minute for Gamba Osaka, set up by Shuto Abe, to make it 3-1. Tokuma Suzuki (66'), Patrick Wood (86'), Ethan Debono (88') and Takeru Kishimoto (93') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Gamba Osaka are 50 points stronger than Newcastle Jets. Expected goals put the gap at 0.63 to 2.06. The card tally for Newcastle Jets was two yellow cards. Newcastle Jets made four changes. Gamba Osaka picked up two yellow cards. Gamba Osaka: five substitutions. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. Gamba Osaka turned a deficit into victory.