A 219-point edge to Al Ain, which the model prices at 17.9% / 22.6% / 59.5%.
Higher rating: the away side. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -30 and +189. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Distance between the ratings: 219 points, wide on this scale. The gap between first and second outcome is 36.9 points, Al Ain ahead of the draw. Elo expected shares: 29.2% and 70.8%. The model's preferred outcome is Al Ain at 59.5%. It ended 1-4. A decisive result carries 77.4% against 22.6% for the draw. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 9.0%. Raw profiles are 0.83 and 1.09 against 1.54 and 1.20. A 41.6-point range top to bottom. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 22 and 76 matches. The edge is split: Al Ain scores at the higher rate (1.54 to 0.83), Al Quwa Al Jawiya concedes at the lower (1.09 to 1.20). On expected goals the model has it 1.47 against 2.26.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and five against accompanied Al Quwa Al Jawiya's two wins and three defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. A 1-0 defeat away to Neftchi (14 September) was their most recent result.
The 14 September fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Al Quwa Al Jawiya with Neftchi. Al Quwa Al Jawiya lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Olmaliq (AFC Champions League), Al Quwa Al Jawiya finished 3-2 on 4 December 2023. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition. 27 November 2023: Al Quwa Al Jawiya lost 0-1 against Sepahan FC away from home in AFC Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Al-Ittihad FC in AFC Champions League, Al Quwa Al Jawiya scored two and conceded zero on 6 November 2023; the at home result was 2-0. Al Quwa Al Jawiya's away from home game on 23 October 2023 (AFC Champions League) ended 0-1 against Al-Ittihad FC, with zero goals for and one against.
12 goals for and three against accompanied Al Ain's four wins and one draw across five outings, keeping three clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 4-0 win at home to Al-Nassr (15 September) was their most recent result.
AFC Champions League, 15 September brought a home meeting with Al-Nassr; Al Ain won 4-0, a return of four goals scored and zero conceded. Al Ain hosted Al-Wasl FC on 10 September (UAE Pro League) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Al-Ittihad Kalba hosted Al Ain (UAE Pro League) on 4 September. For Al Ain, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 2-1 was Al Ain's result against Al Nasr on 29 August (UAE Pro League), playing at home; Al Ain won, with two scored to one conceded. The 22 August fixture (UAE Pro League) paired Al Ain with Khorfakkan. Al Ain won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero.
After the match
Al Ain comfortably beat Al Quwa Al Jawiya 4-1 at Basra Sports City, Basra on 12 October 2026. Alejandro Romero Gamarra opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Al Ain to make it 1-0. Saed Al-Rosan (an own goal) added to the tally in the 18th minute for Al Ain to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Al Ain extended the lead through Houssine Rahimi in the 23rd minute, set up by Matías Palacios, to make it 3-0. Houssine Rahimi scored the 4th goal for Al Ain in the 43rd minute as they extended the lead, set up by Soufiane Rahimi, to make it 4-0. Mohammad Jawad got one back late on, in the 89th minute for Al Quwa Al Jawiya, set up by Mohammad Sami, to make it 1-4. Abdulameer (68') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al Ain 219 points stronger than Al Quwa Al Jawiya. Al Ain won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 59.5%. Al Ain are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in the 2024/25 AFC Champions League, the 2026/27 UAE Pro League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. Al Quwa Al Jawiya: one yellow card. Al Quwa Al Jawiya made five changes. five changes were recorded for Al Ain.