Read this with the sample size in view: Neftchi's rating comes from 2 rated matches. The output — 1842 against 1509, splitting 83.3% / 15.0% / 1.7% — is what the model holds, but the confidence behind it is thinner than the decimals suggest.
Elo expected shares: 90.8% and 9.2%. The model gives 85.0% to someone winning. Only 2 rated matches back the Neftchi figure. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.1%. Ratings sit 333 apart. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +342 and +9. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Al-Nassr sits 68.3 points above the next most likely result. The three results cover 81.6 points. Point estimate: 2-1. The four component numbers read 1.77, 0.79, 0.97, 1.02. The tie closed out 3-1. Al-Nassr carries the largest share, 83.3%. On expected goals the model has it 2.67 against 1.03. Al-Nassr holds both halves of the profile — 1.77 against 0.97 for scoring, 0.79 against 1.02 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Nassr's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 8 conceded. Al Diriyah were their latest opponents, at home on 9 October: a 3-0 win.
On 9 October, Al Diriyah faced Al-Nassr in Saudi Pro League: Al-Nassr won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. AFC Champions League, 15 September brought an away meeting with Al Ain; Al-Nassr lost 0-4, a return of zero goals scored and four conceded. Al-Nassr visited Al Khaleej Saihat on 12 September (Saudi Pro League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Abha travelled to face Al-Nassr (Saudi Pro League) on 9 September. For Al-Nassr, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 1-2 was Al-Nassr's result against Al-Ittihad FC on 5 September (Saudi Pro League), playing away from home; Al-Nassr lost, with one scored to two conceded.
Neftchi came into the game with one win in their previous outing, scoring one goal and conceding zero. On 14 September, Neftchi recorded a 1-0 win hosting Al Quwa Al Jawiya.
AFC Champions League, 14 September brought a home meeting with Al Quwa Al Jawiya; Neftchi won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded.
After the match
Al-Nassr beat Neftchi 3-1 at Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh on 12 October 2026. Angelo Borges opened the scoring in the 33rd minute for Al-Nassr, set up by Nawaf Boushal, to make it 1-0. Cristiano Ronaldo added to the tally in the 42nd minute for Al-Nassr, set up by Ayman Yahya, to make it 2-0. Alisher Odilov pulled one back 51 minutes into the game for Neftchi to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Al-Nassr extended the lead through Anvarjon Gofurov (an own goal) 78 minutes into the game to make it 3-1. Ikromzhon Alibaev (65') was sent off. Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev (17'), Anvarjon Gofurov (30'), Marcus Forss (48') and Iñigo Martínez (48') were booked. Al-Nassr's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 83.3% for a win in this pairing. Expected goals put the gap at 2.13 to 0.58. Al-Nassr picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Al-Nassr was four. three yellow cards and one red card went to Neftchi. The substitution total for Neftchi was five.