A 259-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 14.0% / 21.2% / 64.8% distribution.
Esteghlal FC holds both halves of the profile — 1.03 against 0.96 for scoring, 0.85 against 1.54 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The ratings draw on 385 and 51 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -76 and +183. The gap between first and second outcome is 43.6 points, Esteghlal FC ahead of the draw. A 50.8-point range top to bottom. Esteghlal FC carries the largest share, 64.8%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. Expected goals 1.21-2.13. The model gives 78.8% to someone winning. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 9.7%. By expected share of the points: 24.7% and 75.3%. One recorded prior meeting: 2024, 0-3 in AFC Champions League. A single result carries no predictive load. It ended 1-2. The four component numbers read 0.96, 1.54, 1.03, 0.85. A 259-point spread sits between the two figures.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Gharafa's previous five results comprised one draw and four defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 12 conceded, with no wins. Al Wakrah were their latest opponents, away on 8 October: a 3-2 defeat.
Against Al Wakrah in Qatar Stars League, Al-Gharafa scored two and conceded three on 8 October; the away from home result was 2-3. Al-Gharafa's away from home game on 15 September (AFC Champions League) ended 1-2 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC, with one goal for and two against. On 11 September, Lusail City faced Al-Gharafa in Qatar Stars League: Al-Gharafa drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Qatar Stars League, 5 September brought an away meeting with Al Sadd; Al-Gharafa lost 1-4, a return of one goal scored and four conceded. Al-Gharafa hosted Al Shamal on 27 August (Qatar Stars League) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded.
six goals for and four against accompanied Esteghlal FC's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. A 3-0 win at home to Al Sadd (14 September) was their most recent result.
Esteghlal FC's at home game on 14 September (AFC Champions League) ended 3-0 against Al Sadd, with three goals for and zero against. On 10 March 2025, Al-Nassr faced Esteghlal FC in AFC Champions League: Esteghlal FC lost 0-3 away from home, having scored zero and conceded three. AFC Champions League, 3 March 2025 brought a home meeting with Al-Nassr; Esteghlal FC drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Esteghlal FC visited Al-Rayyan SC on 18 February 2025 (AFC Champions League) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. Al Shorta travelled to face Esteghlal FC (AFC Champions League) on 3 February 2025. For Esteghlal FC, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed.
The last recorded meeting was a 3-0 home win for Esteghlal FC on 16 September 2024.
After the match
Esteghlal FC edged past Al-Gharafa 2-1 on 12 October 2026. Jasir Asani opened the scoring in the 37th minute for Esteghlal FC, set up by Saleh Hardani, to make it 1-0. Ferjani Sassi levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Al-Gharafa, set up by Seydou Sano, to make it 1-1. Esteghlal FC regained the lead through Hossein Goudarzi 60 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Jaloliddin Masharipov (44'), Roozbeh Cheshmi (49') and Esmaeil Gholizadeh (82') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Esteghlal FC 259 points stronger than Al-Gharafa. Esteghlal FC: 64.8% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.85 to 0.78. The substitution total for Al-Gharafa was five. three yellow cards went to Esteghlal FC. Esteghlal FC: three substitutions.