A 236-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 16.1% / 22.0% / 61.9% distribution.
Behind them are 53 and 190 rated matches. Attack/defence pairs: 0.81/0.95 and 1.83/0.75. Versus the 1500 seed: +103 and +339. By expected share of the points: 27.2% and 72.8%. The underlying goal expectation is 0.91 for Pakhtakor, 2.35 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. No scoreline stands out; 0-2 only leads on 10.6%. The single-scoreline output is 0-2. The model's preferred outcome is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 61.9%. Al-Qadisiyah FC is ahead on each half — 1.83 to 0.81 in attack, 0.75 to 0.95 in defence. Rating separation comes to 236 points. The tie closed out 1-1. Higher rating: the away side. The model gives 78.0% to someone winning. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Spread across the three results is 45.8 points. Al-Qadisiyah FC sits 39.9 points above the next most likely result.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Pakhtakor's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 6 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah were their latest opponents, away on 14 September: a 1-1 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Al Hussein on 11 August.
Playing away from home against Al-Ahli Jeddah (AFC Champions League), Pakhtakor finished 1-1 on 14 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 11 August: Pakhtakor won 3-0 against Al Hussein at home in AFC Champions League, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Al-Hilal Saudi FC in AFC Champions League, Pakhtakor scored zero and conceded four on 11 March 2025; the away from home result was 0-4. Pakhtakor's at home game on 4 March 2025 (AFC Champions League) ended 1-0 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC, with one goal for and zero against. On 17 February 2025, Al Sadd faced Pakhtakor in AFC Champions League: Pakhtakor won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring 15 goals and conceding six. On 9 October, Al-Qadisiyah FC recorded a 5-0 win visiting Al Kholood.
9 October: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5-0 against Al Kholood away from home in Saudi Pro League, scoring five goals and allowing zero. Against Al-Wasl FC in AFC Champions League, Al-Qadisiyah FC scored two and conceded one on 14 September; the at home result was 2-1. Al-Qadisiyah FC's at home game on 11 September (Saudi Pro League) ended 3-3 against Al-Ettifaq, with three goals for and three against. On 8 September, Al-Ahli Jeddah faced Al-Qadisiyah FC in Saudi Pro League: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 3-2 at home, having scored three and conceded two. Saudi Pro League, 3 September brought an away meeting with Al Diriyah; Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded.
After the match
Pakhtakor and Al-Qadisiyah FC drew 1-1 at Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent on 12 October 2026. Tijjani Reijnders opened the scoring in the 35th minute for Al-Qadisiyah FC, set up by Christopher Bonsu Baah, to make it 1-0. Dostonbek Khamdamov levelled it from the penalty spot late on, in the 89th minute for Pakhtakor to make it 1-1. Akmal Mozgovoy (33') and Ali Badra Diabaté (62') were booked. Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. The card tally for Pakhtakor was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Pakhtakor. one yellow card went to Al-Qadisiyah FC. The substitution total for Al-Qadisiyah FC was four.