The stalemate carries 26.6% in a 42.3% / 26.6% / 31.1% distribution.
The higher-rated side expects 44.3% of the points; the other side 55.7%. Neither figure is thin: 8 and 251 matches respectively sit behind them. Of the individual scorelines, 0-0 carries the most weight at 18.3% — 1-0 is next at 15.8%. The match finished 0-1. Versus the 1500 seed: -45 and -20. In absolute terms: Abu Qair Semad 0.72/1.04, Ghazl El Mehalla 0.59/0.81 on attack and defence. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Top of the distribution: Abu Qair Semad, 42.3%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. First to second is a 11.2-point step, Abu Qair Semad over Ghazl El Mehalla. The underlying goal expectation is 0.86 for Abu Qair Semad, 0.84 for Ghazl El Mehalla. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 25 points. Spread across the three results is 15.7 points. Point estimate: 0-0. One half each — Abu Qair Semad in front on 0.72, Ghazl El Mehalla behind on 0.81. The model gives 73.4% to someone winning.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Abu Qair Semad's previous five results comprised one draw and four defeats. Their goal totals were 2 scored and 9 conceded, failing to score in three of those games, with no wins. Latest: a 1-1 draw away to AL Masry on 19 October.
1-1 was Abu Qair Semad's result against AL Masry on 19 October (Egyptian Premier League), playing away from home; Abu Qair Semad drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 13 October fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Abu Qair Semad with Asyut Petrol. Abu Qair Semad lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Al Ahly (Egyptian Premier League), Abu Qair Semad finished 0-2 on 15 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 8 September: Abu Qair Semad lost 0-2 against Zamalek SC away from home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Al Ittihad in Egyptian Premier League, Abu Qair Semad scored zero and conceded two on 2 September; the at home result was 0-2.
three goals for and six against accompanied Ghazl El Mehalla's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. On 21 October, Ghazl El Mehalla recorded a 2-1 win hosting Al Ittihad.
The 21 October fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Ghazl El Mehalla with Al Ittihad. Ghazl El Mehalla won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Smouha SC (Egyptian Premier League), Ghazl El Mehalla finished 0-1 on 12 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 16 September: Ghazl El Mehalla lost 0-1 against Zamalek SC at home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against National Bank of Egypt in Egyptian Premier League, Ghazl El Mehalla scored one and conceded three on 7 September; the away from home result was 1-3. Ghazl El Mehalla's at home game on 1 September (Egyptian Premier League) ended 0-0 against Enppi, with zero goals for and zero against.
After the match
Ghazl El Mehalla edged past Abu Qair Semad 1-0 on 31 October 2026. Mohamed Salem Ekbad opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Ghazl El Mehalla to make it 1-0. Youssef Hamdi (34'), Mory Touré (52'), Ahmed Etman (65') and Omar Ibrahim (67') were booked. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.05 to 0.83. Abu Qair Semad picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Abu Qair Semad was four. Ghazl El Mehalla picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Ghazl El Mehalla was five. Ghazl El Mehalla kept their opponents scoreless.