Draw weight is the story: 26.3% of a 43.8% / 26.3% / 29.9% split.
Expected goals sit at 0.86 against 0.70. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 8 and 325 matches. One edge each: scoring to Asyut Petrol (0.76 v 0.58), conceding to El Gouna FC (0.76 v 0.91). From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -32 and -16. Most weight falls on 0-0 at 20.9%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The model gives 73.7% to someone winning. Result on the day: 1-1. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2025, 1-2 in Egypt Cup. 16 points of rating separation. 43.8% goes to Asyut Petrol, the model's lean. Asyut Petrol sits 13.9 points above the next most likely result. Between best and worst outcome there is 17.5 points of daylight. The four component numbers read 0.76, 0.91, 0.58, 0.76. The single-scoreline output is 0-0. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Elo expected shares: 57.0% and 43.0%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Asyut Petrol: one win and four defeats over five games; two goals scored, six conceded, failing to score in four of those games. Zamalek SC were their latest opponents, at home on 20 October: a 1-0 defeat.
Asyut Petrol hosted Zamalek SC on 20 October (Egyptian Premier League) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Abu Qair Semad hosted Asyut Petrol (Egyptian Premier League) on 13 October. For Asyut Petrol, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 0-2 was Asyut Petrol's result against Future FC on 15 September (Egyptian Premier League), playing at home; Asyut Petrol lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 7 September fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Asyut Petrol with Al Ittihad. Asyut Petrol lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against National Bank of Egypt (Egyptian Premier League), Asyut Petrol finished 0-1 on 31 August. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition.
El Gouna FC arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording five defeats, scoring two goals and conceding eight, failing to score in three of those games. On 19 October, El Gouna FC recorded a 2-0 defeat hosting Smouha SC.
El Gouna FC's at home game on 19 October (Egyptian Premier League) ended 0-2 against Smouha SC, with zero goals for and two against. On 13 October, Al Ittihad faced El Gouna FC in Egyptian Premier League: El Gouna FC lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. Egyptian Premier League, 16 September brought a home meeting with Petrojet; El Gouna FC lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. El Gouna FC visited Pyramids FC on 9 September (Egyptian Premier League) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. El Mokawloon travelled to face El Gouna FC (Egyptian Premier League) on 2 September. For El Gouna FC, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-1 home win for El Gouna FC on 4 December 2025.
After the match
Asyut Petrol and El Gouna FC drew 1-1 on 30 October 2026. Marwan Mohsen opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 36th minute for El Gouna FC to make it 1-0. Joshua Egaji levelled it 74 minutes into the game for Asyut Petrol, set up by Che Corines Bodne, to make it 1-1. Alpha Turay (60') was sent off. Abdel Rahman Mohamed Eissa (2'), Zeyad Tarek (29'), Omar El Gazar (48') and Ahmed Younes (69') were booked. Asyut Petrol picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for Asyut Petrol was five. El Gouna FC picked up one yellow card and one red card. El Gouna FC: four substitutions.