Prior record: 2-6-10 across 18 since 2015. Most recent 2025, 0-4 in Egyptian Premier League. The present numbers are 1460 against 1905, and the model turns that into 2.6% / 15.0% / 82.4%.
The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Attack/defence pairs: 0.53/0.95 and 1.58/0.50. Goal expectation splits 0.39 to 2.02. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -40 and +405. Both components point the same way, toward Pyramids FC: 1.58 to 0.53 going forward, 0.50 to 0.95 going back. Behind them are 461 and 357 rated matches. The distribution peaks at 0-2, 18.3%, with 0-1 behind it at 18.1%. The away side is rated higher. Expected shares 10.1% against 89.9% on Elo. The two ratings differ by 445 points. First to second is a 67.4-point step, Pyramids FC over the draw. A decisive result carries 85.0% against 15.0% for the draw. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Most and least likely outcomes are 79.8 points apart. 82.4% goes to Pyramids FC, the model's lean. Reduced to one result that is 0-2. The tie closed out 1-4.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
El Geish came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring four goals and conceding eight, failing to score in three of those games. On 13 October, El Geish recorded a 3-0 defeat visiting National Bank of Egypt.
National Bank of Egypt hosted El Geish (Egyptian Premier League) on 13 October. For El Geish, the score was 0-3: zero goals scored, three allowed. 0-1 was El Geish's result against Smouha SC on 14 September (Egyptian Premier League), playing at home; El Geish lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 7 September fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired El Geish with Olympic El Qanah. El Geish drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Masr (Egyptian Premier League), El Geish finished 0-1 on 1 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 26 August: El Geish won 3-2 against Petrojet away from home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring three goals and allowing two.
Pyramids FC: five wins over five games; 13 goals scored, three conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 1-0 win away to EL Merriekh Bentiu on 16 October; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to GOR Mahia on 13 September.
1-0 was Pyramids FC's result against EL Merriekh Bentiu on 16 October (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; Pyramids FC won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 12 October fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Pyramids FC with Ceramica Cleopatra. Pyramids FC won 4-1 at home, netting four goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Enppi (Egyptian Premier League), Pyramids FC finished 2-1 on 17 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 13 September: Pyramids FC won 5-1 against GOR Mahia at home in CAF Champions League, scoring five goals and allowing one. Against El Gouna FC in Egyptian Premier League, Pyramids FC scored one and conceded zero on 9 September; the at home result was 1-0.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 4-0 home win for Pyramids FC on 27 September 2025 and a 2-1 home win for Pyramids FC on 23 February 2025.
After the match
Pyramids FC comfortably beat El Geish 4-1 at Cairo Military Academy Stadium, Cairo on 20 October 2026. Mohanad Lashin opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Pyramids FC, set up by Walid El Karti, to make it 1-0. Mostafa Zico added to the tally inside the first 15 minutes for Pyramids FC to make it 2-0. Ahmed Tarek pulled one back in the 34th minute for El Geish, set up by Khaled Abo Ziada, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Pyramids FC extended the lead through Mahmoud Saber 77 minutes into the game to make it 3-1. Mahmoud Zalaka scored the 5th goal for Pyramids FC from the penalty spot late on, in the 89th minute as they extended the lead to make it 4-1. Mohamed Atef (39'), Khaled Abo Ziada (87') and Mohamed Fathallah (88') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Pyramids FC 445 points stronger than El Geish. Pyramids FC won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 82.4%. Pyramids FC's current recorded form ends with 10 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Egyptian Premier League and the 2026/27 CAF Champions League. El Geish: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for El Geish. Pyramids FC: five substitutions.