341 points is a wide separation: Zamalek SC rates 1811, Asyut Petrol 1470. That resolves to 7.8% / 18.3% / 73.9%.
Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 7 and 497 matches. Expected goals 0.47-1.37. Higher rating: the away side. Zamalek SC holds both halves of the profile — 1.11 against 0.76 for scoring, 0.42 against 0.92 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Zamalek SC holds a 55.6-point edge on the next outcome. The single-scoreline output is 0-1. A 341-point spread sits between the two figures. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -30 and +311. A decisive result carries 81.7% against 18.3% for the draw. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The higher rating expects 83.0% of the points, the lower 17.0%. The three results cover 66.1 points. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Played and finished 0-1. Of the individual scorelines, 0-1 carries the most weight at 21.7% — 0-0 is next at 15.9%. Most likely single result is Zamalek SC on 73.9%. Raw profiles are 0.76 and 0.92 against 1.11 and 0.42.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Asyut Petrol's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 2 scored and 5 conceded, failing to score in four of those games. Latest: a 2-1 win away to Abu Qair Semad on 13 October.
Playing away from home against Abu Qair Semad (Egyptian Premier League), Asyut Petrol finished 2-1 on 13 October. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 15 September: Asyut Petrol lost 0-2 against Future FC at home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Al Ittihad in Egyptian Premier League, Asyut Petrol scored zero and conceded one on 7 September; the away from home result was 0-1. Asyut Petrol's at home game on 31 August (Egyptian Premier League) ended 0-1 against National Bank of Egypt, with zero goals for and one against. On 26 August, Smouha SC faced Asyut Petrol in Egyptian Premier League: Asyut Petrol drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero.
eight goals for and two against accompanied Zamalek SC's four wins and one defeat across five outings, keeping four clean sheets. A 1-0 win away to APR (16 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Port on 12 September.
CAF Champions League, 16 October brought an away meeting with APR; Zamalek SC won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Zamalek SC hosted Al Ahly on 11 October (Egyptian Premier League) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Ghazl El Mehalla hosted Zamalek SC (Egyptian Premier League) on 16 September. For Zamalek SC, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 4-0 was Zamalek SC's result against Port on 12 September (CAF Champions League), playing at home; Zamalek SC won, with four scored to zero conceded. The 8 September fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Zamalek SC with Abu Qair Semad. Zamalek SC won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero.
After the match
Zamalek SC edged past Asyut Petrol 1-0 on 20 October 2026. Ahmed Sherif opened the scoring in the 26th minute for Zamalek SC to make it 1-0. Ibrahim Abass (18'), Mostafa El Zenary (28') and Abdelrahman Medhat (53') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Zamalek SC 341 points stronger than Asyut Petrol. Zamalek SC: 73.9% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. two yellow cards went to Asyut Petrol. Asyut Petrol: five substitutions. The card tally for Zamalek SC was one yellow card. Zamalek SC made five changes. A clean sheet for Zamalek SC.