1603 plays 1470; the model splits it 65.2% / 21.1% / 13.7%. AL Masry holds both halves of the profile — 0.82 against 0.77 for scoring, 0.88 against 1.06 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
The match finished 1-1. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 437 and 7 rated matches respectively. The model's preferred outcome is AL Masry at 65.2%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +103 and -30. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The model gives 78.9% to someone winning. Attack/defence pairs: 0.82/0.88 and 0.77/1.06. Elo expected shares: 75.8% and 24.2%. 133 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The underlying goal expectation is 1.30 for AL Masry, 0.90 for Abu Qair Semad. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-0. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-0 highest at 14.3%. The gap between first and second outcome is 44.1 points, AL Masry ahead of the draw. The three results cover 51.5 points.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
AL Masry came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding eight. On 11 October, AL Masry recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Olympic El Qanah.
11 October: AL Masry drew 1-1 against Olympic El Qanah away from home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Al Ittihad in Egyptian Premier League, AL Masry scored zero and conceded two on 15 September; the at home result was 0-2. AL Masry's away from home game on 7 September (Egyptian Premier League) ended 1-2 against Petrojet, with one goal for and two against. On 31 August, Pyramids FC faced AL Masry in Egyptian Premier League: AL Masry lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one. Egyptian Premier League, 27 August brought an away meeting with El Mokawloon; AL Masry won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded.
Abu Qair Semad arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording five defeats, scoring one goal and conceding ten, failing to score in four of those games. A 2-1 defeat at home to Asyut Petrol (13 October) was their most recent result.
Abu Qair Semad's at home game on 13 October (Egyptian Premier League) ended 1-2 against Asyut Petrol, with one goal for and two against. On 15 September, Al Ahly faced Abu Qair Semad in Egyptian Premier League: Abu Qair Semad lost 0-2 away from home, having scored zero and conceded two. Egyptian Premier League, 8 September brought an away meeting with Zamalek SC; Abu Qair Semad lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Abu Qair Semad hosted Al Ittihad on 2 September (Egyptian Premier League) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Pyramids FC hosted Abu Qair Semad (Egyptian Premier League) on 27 August. For Abu Qair Semad, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed.
After the match
AL Masry and Abu Qair Semad drew 1-1 on 19 October 2026. Omar Ibrahim opened the scoring 64 minutes into the game for Abu Qair Semad, set up by Ramez Milad, to make it 1-0. Salah Mohsen levelled it from the penalty spot 79 minutes into the game for AL Masry to make it 1-1. Hassan Ali (40') and Haitham Shaaban (94') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have AL Masry 133 points stronger than Abu Qair Semad. The card tally for AL Masry was one yellow card. AL Masry made four changes. Abu Qair Semad: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Abu Qair Semad.