On file: 20 previous meetings dating to 2011, 19-18 on goals. Last time: 2025, 1-0 in Egyptian Premier League. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1482 and 1545 — 63 points — for a 36.3% / 27.9% / 35.8% split.
Both figures rest on decent samples, 324 and 456 matches. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The split is one apiece: El Gouna FC leads the attacking rate on 0.56, Smouha SC the defensive on 0.64. Expected goals sit at 0.54 against 0.58. Raw profiles are 0.56 and 0.77 against 0.56 and 0.64. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 63 points. Someone wins 72.1% of the time by this model. A 0.5-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-0. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The away side is rated higher. It ended 0-2. Top to bottom the spread is only 8.4 points. Of the individual scorelines, 0-0 carries the most weight at 32.8% — 0-1 is next at 18.9%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 50.3% to 49.7%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
El Gouna FC arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording one draw and four defeats, scoring three goals and conceding seven. On 13 October, El Gouna FC recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting Al Ittihad.
The 13 October fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired El Gouna FC with Al Ittihad. El Gouna FC lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against Petrojet (Egyptian Premier League), El Gouna FC finished 1-2 on 16 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 9 September: El Gouna FC lost 0-1 against Pyramids FC away from home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against El Mokawloon in Egyptian Premier League, El Gouna FC scored zero and conceded one on 2 September; the at home result was 0-1. El Gouna FC's away from home game on 28 August (Egyptian Premier League) ended 1-1 against Olympic El Qanah, with one goal for and one against.
Smouha SC came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring two goals and conceding three, keeping three clean sheets. On 12 October, Smouha SC recorded a 1-0 win hosting Ghazl El Mehalla.
Ghazl El Mehalla travelled to face Smouha SC (Egyptian Premier League) on 12 October. For Smouha SC, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-0 was Smouha SC's result against El Geish on 14 September (Egyptian Premier League), playing away from home; Smouha SC won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 8 September fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Smouha SC with Ceramica Cleopatra. Smouha SC lost 0-2 at home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Al Ahly (Egyptian Premier League), Smouha SC finished 0-1 on 3 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 26 August: Smouha SC drew 0-0 against Asyut Petrol at home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-0 away win for El Gouna FC on 27 October 2025 and a 1-1 draw at El Gouna FC on 28 April 2025.
After the match
Smouha SC beat El Gouna FC 2-0 at Khaled Bichara Stadium, El Gouna on 19 October 2026. Pape Abasse Badji opened the scoring late on, in the 82nd minute for Smouha SC, set up by Fady Farid, to make it 1-0. Fady Farid added to the tally late on, in the 86th minute for Smouha SC, set up by Abdelrahman Amer, to make it 2-0. Saber Ashraf El Shimi (38') was sent off. Mohamed Farouk (49') and Marwan Mohsen (76') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Smouha SC are 63 points stronger than El Gouna FC. El Gouna FC's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats. El Gouna FC picked up one yellow card and one red card. El Gouna FC: five substitutions. The card tally for Smouha SC was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Smouha SC. Smouha SC finished with a clean sheet.