The head-to-head counts 18 recorded meetings since 2014: 6 to Al Ittihad, 6 to El Gouna FC, 6 drawn, 13-16 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-0 in Egyptian Premier League. The present numbers are 1555 against 1504, and the model turns that into 54.1% / 23.9% / 22.0%.
The home side is rated higher. Al Ittihad's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 66.1%. With 459 and 323 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Win-or-lose totals 76.1%; the draw takes the rest. Outcomes span 32.1 points. xG: 0.86 to 0.56. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-0. First to second is a 30.2-point step, Al Ittihad over the draw. Ratings sit 51 apart. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Scorelines above 8%: 5. 54.1% goes to Al Ittihad, the model's lean. Of the individual scorelines, 0-0 carries the most weight at 24.1% — 1-0 is next at 20.8%. In absolute terms: Al Ittihad 0.81/0.69, El Gouna FC 0.60/0.72 on attack and defence. Neither component contradicts the other: Al Ittihad leads 0.81-0.60 forward and 0.69-0.72 back. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +55 and +4.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Ittihad came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding three, keeping four clean sheets. On 15 September, Al Ittihad recorded a 2-0 win visiting AL Masry.
Al Ittihad's away from home game on 15 September (Egyptian Premier League) ended 2-0 against AL Masry, with two goals for and zero against. On 7 September, Asyut Petrol faced Al Ittihad in Egyptian Premier League: Al Ittihad won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. Egyptian Premier League, 2 September brought an away meeting with Abu Qair Semad; Al Ittihad won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Al Ittihad hosted Ceramica Cleopatra on 28 August (Egyptian Premier League) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded. Zamalek SC hosted Al Ittihad (Egyptian Premier League) on 21 August. For Al Ittihad, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
three goals for and six against accompanied El Gouna FC's two draws and three defeats across five outings, a winless run. A 2-1 defeat at home to Petrojet (16 September) was their most recent result.
Egyptian Premier League, 16 September brought a home meeting with Petrojet; El Gouna FC lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. El Gouna FC visited Pyramids FC on 9 September (Egyptian Premier League) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. El Mokawloon travelled to face El Gouna FC (Egyptian Premier League) on 2 September. For El Gouna FC, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-1 was El Gouna FC's result against Olympic El Qanah on 28 August (Egyptian Premier League), playing away from home; El Gouna FC drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 23 August fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired El Gouna FC with Future FC. El Gouna FC drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one.
The last two recorded meetings were a 0-0 draw at El Gouna FC on 4 April and a 2-0 away win for El Gouna FC on 23 November 2025.
After the match
Al Ittihad edged past El Gouna FC 2-1 at Alexandria Stadium, Alexandria on 13 October 2026. Mohamed Mido Mostafa (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for El Gouna FC to make it 1-0. Hossam Hassan levelled it inside the first 10 minutes for Al Ittihad, set up by Joseph Arumala, to make it 1-1. Mohamed Toni put Al Ittihad in front 60 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Tolulope Samuel Ojo (61') was sent off. Tolulope Samuel Ojo (41') was booked. Al Ittihad's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins. El Gouna FC's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats. Expected goals put the gap at 1.82 to 0.07. The substitution total for Al Ittihad was five. one yellow card and one red card went to El Gouna FC. The substitution total for El Gouna FC was five. The scoring record shows one lead change. Al Ittihad won after falling behind.