11 meetings sit in the record, first in 2021, aggregate 10-10. The latest was 2026, 0-1 in Egyptian Premier League. History aside, the live ratings of 1590 and 1465 drive a 64.3% / 21.3% / 14.4% distribution.
The model gives 78.7% to someone winning. Most and least likely outcomes are 49.9 points apart. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 200 and 460 matches. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 20.6% — 0-0 is next at 17.7%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The tie closed out 3-0. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. National Bank of Egypt's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 74.9%. Raw profiles are 0.96 and 0.82 against 0.52 and 0.82. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 125 points. First to second is a 43.0-point step, National Bank of Egypt over the draw. Reduced to one result that is 1-0. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.16 and 0.57. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +90 and -35.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
National Bank of Egypt came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring four goals and conceding seven, failing to score in three of those games. A 2-0 defeat away to Ceramica Cleopatra (14 September) was their most recent result.
Ceramica Cleopatra hosted National Bank of Egypt (Egyptian Premier League) on 14 September. For National Bank of Egypt, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 3-1 was National Bank of Egypt's result against Ghazl El Mehalla on 7 September (Egyptian Premier League), playing at home; National Bank of Egypt won, with three scored to one conceded. The 31 August fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired National Bank of Egypt with Asyut Petrol. National Bank of Egypt won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Zamalek SC (Egyptian Premier League), National Bank of Egypt finished 0-3 on 26 August. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 21 August: National Bank of Egypt lost 0-1 against Abu Qair Semad away from home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing one.
El Geish's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 5 conceded. Smouha SC were their latest opponents, at home on 14 September: a 1-0 defeat.
Against Smouha SC in Egyptian Premier League, El Geish scored zero and conceded one on 14 September; the at home result was 0-1. El Geish's away from home game on 7 September (Egyptian Premier League) ended 1-1 against Olympic El Qanah, with one goal for and one against. On 1 September, Masr faced El Geish in Egyptian Premier League: El Geish lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one. Egyptian Premier League, 26 August brought an away meeting with Petrojet; El Geish won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. El Geish hosted El Mokawloon on 22 August (Egyptian Premier League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 home win for El Geish on 9 April and a 0-0 draw at National Bank of Egypt on 29 August 2025.
After the match
National Bank of Egypt comfortably beat El Geish 3-0 at Cairo International Stadium, Cairo on 13 October 2026. Anderson Santos opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for National Bank of Egypt to make it 1-0. Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama added to the tally 73 minutes into the game for National Bank of Egypt, set up by Mostafa Shalaby, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, National Bank of Egypt extended the lead through Khaled Sayed Abdelshafi in the 95th minute, set up by Hisham Saleh, to make it 3-0. Khaled Sotohi (89') was sent off. Gomaa Mashour (22'), Ahmed Tarek (46') and Amro Tarek (91') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have National Bank of Egypt 125 points stronger than El Geish. National Bank of Egypt's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 64.3% for a win in this pairing. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.45 to 1.57. five changes were recorded for National Bank of Egypt. three yellow cards and one red card went to El Geish. El Geish: five substitutions. A clean sheet for National Bank of Egypt.