An unusually heavy draw share here at 26.1%.
As a single number the model says 1-1. Top of the distribution: Abu Qair Semad, 44.6%. Goal expectation splits 1.06 to 1.19. Attack/defence pairs: 0.77/1.08 and 0.81/0.93. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. A 18.5-point range top to bottom. There is no trade-off to weigh: Asyut Petrol scores at the higher rate (0.81 to 0.77) and concedes at the lower (0.93 to 1.08). Scorelines above 8%: 4. The tie closed out 1-2. Abu Qair Semad: only 6 rated matches. Someone wins 73.9% of the time by this model. 11 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. The higher-rated side expects 42.3% of the points; the other side 57.7%. Abu Qair Semad sits 15.3 points above the next most likely result. The away side is rated higher. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 13.3%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -37 and -26.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Abu Qair Semad came into the game with one win and four defeats from their last five outings, scoring one goal and conceding eight, failing to score in four of those games. A 2-0 defeat away to Al Ahly (15 September) was their most recent result.
Al Ahly hosted Abu Qair Semad (Egyptian Premier League) on 15 September. For Abu Qair Semad, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 0-2 was Abu Qair Semad's result against Zamalek SC on 8 September (Egyptian Premier League), playing away from home; Abu Qair Semad lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 2 September fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Abu Qair Semad with Al Ittihad. Abu Qair Semad lost 0-2 at home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Pyramids FC (Egyptian Premier League), Abu Qair Semad finished 0-2 on 27 August. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 21 August: Abu Qair Semad won 1-0 against National Bank of Egypt at home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring one goal and allowing zero.
Asyut Petrol: two draws and three defeats over five games; one goal scored, five conceded, failing to score in four of those games, without a win. Future FC were their latest opponents, at home on 15 September: a 2-0 defeat.
Playing at home against Future FC (Egyptian Premier League), Asyut Petrol finished 0-2 on 15 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 7 September: Asyut Petrol lost 0-1 against Al Ittihad away from home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against National Bank of Egypt in Egyptian Premier League, Asyut Petrol scored zero and conceded one on 31 August; the at home result was 0-1. Asyut Petrol's away from home game on 26 August (Egyptian Premier League) ended 0-0 against Smouha SC, with zero goals for and zero against. On 22 August, Petrojet faced Asyut Petrol in Egyptian Premier League: Asyut Petrol drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one.
After the match
Asyut Petrol edged past Abu Qair Semad 2-1 on 13 October 2026. Mohamed Eid opened the scoring 66 minutes into the game for Asyut Petrol, set up by Abdelrahman Medhat, to make it 1-0. Fathy Gamal added to the tally late on, in the 83rd minute for Asyut Petrol to make it 2-0. Ali Hussein pulled one back in the 94th minute for Abu Qair Semad, set up by Ahmed Dahesh, to make it 1-2. Omar Ibrahim (43') and Quaison Kofi Gideon (81') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Asyut Petrol only a 29.3% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Abu Qair Semad's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2026/27 Egyptian Premier League. Abu Qair Semad: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Abu Qair Semad. The substitution total for Asyut Petrol was five.