On record: 15 meetings from 2013, 21-11 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2025, 0-0 in Egyptian Premier League. The live ratings are 1523 and 1450, giving 57.3% / 23.2% / 19.6%.
The four component numbers read 0.50, 0.68, 0.53, 0.86. The tie closed out 1-0. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 455 and 249 matches. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The xG line reads 0.64 to 0.49. 0-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 32.4%. Smouha SC sits 34.1 points above the next most likely result. The two halves pull apart — Ghazl El Mehalla better going forward at 0.53, Smouha SC tighter at the back on 0.68. Someone wins 76.9% of the time by this model. Smouha SC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 68.9%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +23 and -50. A 73-point spread sits between the two figures. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-0. Between best and worst outcome there is 37.7 points of daylight. Higher rating: the home side. Most likely single result is Smouha SC on 57.3%.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Smouha SC: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; one goal scored, four conceded, failing to score in four of those games. Latest: a 1-0 win away to El Geish on 14 September.
1-0 was Smouha SC's result against El Geish on 14 September (Egyptian Premier League), playing away from home; Smouha SC won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 8 September fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Smouha SC with Ceramica Cleopatra. Smouha SC lost 0-2 at home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Al Ahly (Egyptian Premier League), Smouha SC finished 0-1 on 3 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 26 August: Smouha SC drew 0-0 against Asyut Petrol at home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against AL Masry in Egyptian Premier League, Smouha SC scored zero and conceded one on 22 August; the away from home result was 0-1.
one goal for and nine against accompanied Ghazl El Mehalla's one draw and four defeats across five outings, failing to score in four of those games, a winless run. On 16 September, Ghazl El Mehalla recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Zamalek SC.
The 16 September fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Ghazl El Mehalla with Zamalek SC. Ghazl El Mehalla lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against National Bank of Egypt (Egyptian Premier League), Ghazl El Mehalla finished 1-3 on 7 September. Their score comprised one goal, against three from the opposition. 1 September: Ghazl El Mehalla drew 0-0 against Enppi at home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Future FC in Egyptian Premier League, Ghazl El Mehalla scored zero and conceded two on 27 August; the away from home result was 0-2. Ghazl El Mehalla's at home game on 22 August (Egyptian Premier League) ended 0-3 against Pyramids FC, with zero goals for and three against.
Earlier results between these sides included a 0-0 draw at Ghazl El Mehalla on 16 August 2025 and a 1-0 home win for Ghazl El Mehalla on 11 April 2025.
After the match
Smouha SC edged past Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 at Alexandria Stadium, Alexandria on 12 October 2026. P. Badji opened the scoring in the 34th minute for Smouha SC, set up by K. El Ghandour, to make it 1-0. P. Badji (45'), M. Ragab (46'), R. Arfaoui (84') and K. Mohamed (94') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Smouha SC are 73 points stronger than Ghazl El Mehalla. 57.3% is Smouha SC's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Smouha SC picked up three yellow cards. Smouha SC: five substitutions. Ghazl El Mehalla picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Ghazl El Mehalla was five. Smouha SC conceded no goals.