On file: 4 previous meetings dating to 2023, 4-5 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-0 in Egyptian Premier League. The present numbers are 1547 against 1592, and the model turns that into 39.3% / 27.3% / 33.4%.
With 276 and 132 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +47 and +92. Goal expectation splits 0.90 to 0.85. Win-or-lose totals 72.7%; the draw takes the rest. Ratings sit 45 apart. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 17.3%, clear of 1-0 on 15.6%. Broken into parts the two profiles nearly overlap, 0.80 versus 0.86 in attack and 0.73 versus 0.76 at the back. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-0. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Final score: 1-1. The gap between first and second outcome is 5.9 points, El Mokawloon ahead of Masr. Top of the distribution: El Mokawloon, 39.3%. Raw profiles are 0.80 and 0.73 against 0.86 and 0.76. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Expected shares 52.9% against 47.1% on Elo.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
El Mokawloon's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 5 conceded. Wadi Degla were their latest opponents, away on 15 September: a 2-0 win.
Playing away from home against Wadi Degla (Egyptian Premier League), El Mokawloon finished 2-0 on 15 September. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 9 September: El Mokawloon drew 1-1 against Al Ahly at home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against El Gouna FC in Egyptian Premier League, El Mokawloon scored one and conceded zero on 2 September; the away from home result was 1-0. El Mokawloon's at home game on 27 August (Egyptian Premier League) ended 2-3 against AL Masry, with two goals for and three against. On 22 August, El Geish faced El Mokawloon in Egyptian Premier League: El Mokawloon lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one.
Masr's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 5 conceded. Olympic El Qanah were their latest opponents, at home on 17 September: a 2-1 win.
2-1 was Masr's result against Olympic El Qanah on 17 September (Egyptian Premier League), playing at home; Masr won, with two scored to one conceded. The 9 September fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Masr with Enppi. Masr lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against El Geish (Egyptian Premier League), Masr finished 1-0 on 1 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 28 August: Masr lost 0-2 against Al Ahly at home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Wadi Degla in Egyptian Premier League, Masr scored zero and conceded zero on 21 August; the away from home result was 0-0.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 0-0 draw at Masr on 6 April and a 2-0 away win for Masr on 9 August 2025.
After the match
El Mokawloon and Masr drew 1-1 at Arab Contractors Stadium, Cairo on 12 October 2026. A. Baniouwda opened the scoring 47 minutes into the game for El Mokawloon, set up by I. Thiam, to make it 1-0. M. Mohamed levelled it late on, in the 89th minute for Masr to make it 1-1. M. Hamed (79') and M. Rabia (95') were sent off. I. Thiam (20'), M. Hamed (35'), M. Mohamed (35'), M. Hamed (79') and R. Khalil (87') were booked. El Mokawloon are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. El Mokawloon picked up three yellow cards and one red card. The substitution total for El Mokawloon was five. The card tally for Masr was two yellow cards and one red card. Masr made five changes.