On record: 25 meetings from 2014, 22-44 on aggregate, 6 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-3 in Egyptian Premier League. Against that, current ratings read 1789 and 1850, a 61-point margin, and the model splits the tie 36.7% / 27.8% / 35.5%.
The higher rating belongs to the away side. The ratings draw on 487 and 526 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Its rounded call is 1-0. Each side owns one half of the argument — Al Ahly the scoring rate at 1.21, Zamalek SC the conceding rate at 0.52. It ended 0-2. Only 1.2 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Expected goals 1.00-0.85. In absolute terms: Zamalek SC 1.08/0.52, Al Ahly 1.21/0.63 on attack and defence. A decisive result carries 72.2% against 27.8% for the draw. All three results are bunched inside 8.9 points. Expected shares on the Elo curve: 50.6% and 49.4%. The model's preferred outcome is Zamalek SC at 36.7%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +289 and +350. A 61-point difference on the rating scale.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Zamalek SC: five wins over five games; 11 goals scored, two conceded, keeping three clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 1-0 win away to Ghazl El Mehalla on 16 September; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Port on 12 September.
Playing away from home against Ghazl El Mehalla (Egyptian Premier League), Zamalek SC finished 1-0 on 16 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 12 September: Zamalek SC won 4-0 against Port at home in CAF Champions League, scoring four goals and allowing zero. Against Abu Qair Semad in Egyptian Premier League, Zamalek SC scored two and conceded zero on 8 September; the at home result was 2-0. Zamalek SC's away from home game on 4 September (CAF Champions League) ended 2-1 against Port, with two goals for and one against. On 31 August, Petrojet faced Zamalek SC in Egyptian Premier League: Zamalek SC won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one.
Al Ahly were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring nine goals and conceding three, keeping three clean sheets. On 15 September, Al Ahly recorded a 2-0 win hosting Abu Qair Semad.
The 15 September fixture (Egyptian Premier League) paired Al Ahly with Abu Qair Semad. Al Ahly won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against El Mokawloon (Egyptian Premier League), Al Ahly finished 1-1 on 9 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 3 September: Al Ahly won 1-0 against Smouha SC at home in Egyptian Premier League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Masr in Egyptian Premier League, Al Ahly scored two and conceded zero on 28 August; the away from home result was 2-0. Al Ahly's at home game on 23 August (Egyptian Premier League) ended 3-2 against Enppi, with three goals for and two against.
Earlier results between these sides included a 3-0 away win for Al Ahly on 1 May and a 2-1 home win for Al Ahly on 29 September 2025.
After the match
Al Ahly beat Zamalek SC 2-0 at Cairo International Stadium, Cairo on 11 October 2026. Achraf Bencharki opened the scoring in the 39th minute for Al Ahly, set up by Mohamed Hany, to make it 1-0. Monsef Bakrar added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Al Ahly, set up by Zizo Sayed, to make it 2-0. Omar Gaber (70') was booked. Al Ahly are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form. Zamalek SC picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Zamalek SC was four. The substitution total for Al Ahly was four. Al Ahly kept their opponents scoreless.