On record: 9 meetings from 2022, 13-7 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-1 in Algeria Ligue 1. Today those sides rate 1748 and 1587, 161 apart, which resolves to 68.6% / 20.1% / 11.3%.
Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +248 and +87. Most likely single result is MC Alger on 68.6%. Both components point the same way, toward MC Alger: 1.10 to 0.72 going forward, 0.42 to 0.95 going back. Neither figure is thin: 484 and 127 matches respectively sit behind them. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Point estimate: 1-0. The four component numbers read 1.10, 0.42, 0.72, 0.95. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. A 161-point difference on the rating scale. xG: 1.55 to 0.41. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 21.8%, with 2-0 behind it at 16.9%. Someone wins 79.9% of the time by this model. Higher rating: the home side. The leading outcome clears the second by 48.5 points. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 78.6% to 21.4%. The distribution runs from 68.6% down to 11.3%. Played and finished 2-0.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
MC Alger: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; six goals scored, three conceded, keeping three clean sheets. US Biskra were their latest opponents, away on 27 October: a 1-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Enugu Rangers on 23 October.
MC Alger visited US Biskra on 27 October (Algeria Ligue 1) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Enugu Rangers travelled to face MC Alger (CAF Champions League) on 23 October. For MC Alger, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 0-2 was MC Alger's result against Enugu Rangers on 18 October (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; MC Alger lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 13 October fixture (Algeria Ligue 1) paired MC Alger with ASO Chlef. MC Alger drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Témouchent (Algeria Ligue 1), MC Alger finished 1-0 on 9 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition.
Khenchela: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; three goals scored, six conceded, failing to score in three of those games. JS Kabylie were their latest opponents, at home on 24 October: a 3-0 defeat.
Playing at home against JS Kabylie (Algeria Ligue 1), Khenchela finished 0-3 on 24 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 17 October: Khenchela lost 0-1 against MC Oran away from home in Algeria Ligue 1, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against CS Constantine in Algeria Ligue 1, Khenchela scored two and conceded zero on 12 October; the at home result was 2-0. Khenchela's away from home game on 7 October (Algeria Ligue 1) ended 0-1 against CR Belouizdad, with zero goals for and one against. On 18 September, Ben Aknoun faced Khenchela in Algeria Ligue 1: Khenchela drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 home win for MC Alger on 17 March and a 2-1 home win for MC Alger on 13 December 2025.
After the match
MC Alger beat Khenchela 2-0 on 31 October 2026. A. Ghezala opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for MC Alger to make it 1-0. S. Bayazid added to the tally 68 minutes into the game for MC Alger to make it 2-0. 68.6% is MC Alger's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. MC Alger kept their opponents scoreless.