No separation at all — 37.1% / 27.8% / 35.2% across the three results.
The xG line reads 1.10 to 0.80. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. It ended 1-1. The top two outcomes are within 1.9 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. The two ratings differ by 58 points. Higher rating: the away side. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 16.4%, with 0-0 behind it at 14.9%. Versus the 1500 seed: -11 and +47. In absolute terms: Témouchent 0.80/0.96, ASO Chlef 0.62/0.92 on attack and defence. Scorelines above 8%: 5. A decisive result carries 72.3% against 27.8% for the draw. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 51.0% to 49.0%. 37.1% goes to Témouchent, the model's lean. The single-scoreline output is 1-0. Worth noting the base: only 6 rated matches sit behind Témouchent's number. One half each — Témouchent in front on 0.80, ASO Chlef behind on 0.92. Top to bottom the spread is only 9.3 points.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Témouchent came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring two goals and conceding six, failing to score in three of those games. A 2-0 defeat at home to MB Rouisset (14 October) was their most recent result.
Algeria Ligue 1, 14 October brought a home meeting with MB Rouisset; Témouchent lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Témouchent visited MC Alger on 9 October (Algeria Ligue 1) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. JS Kabylie travelled to face Témouchent (Algeria Ligue 1) on 17 September. For Témouchent, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 0-2 was Témouchent's result against MC Oran on 11 September (Algeria Ligue 1), playing away from home; Témouchent lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 5 September fixture (Algeria Ligue 1) paired Témouchent with CS Constantine. Témouchent drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one.
ASO Chlef's previous five results comprised two draws and three defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 9 conceded, failing to score in three of those games, with no wins. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to MC Alger on 13 October.
ASO Chlef hosted MC Alger on 13 October (Algeria Ligue 1) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. JS Kabylie hosted ASO Chlef (Algeria Ligue 1) on 9 October. For ASO Chlef, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 0-1 was ASO Chlef's result against MC Oran on 18 September (Algeria Ligue 1), playing at home; ASO Chlef lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 12 September fixture (Algeria Ligue 1) paired ASO Chlef with CS Constantine. ASO Chlef lost 0-3 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing at home against CR Belouizdad (Algeria Ligue 1), ASO Chlef finished 3-3 on 5 September. Their score comprised three goals, against three from the opposition.
After the match
Témouchent and ASO Chlef drew 1-1 on 18 October 2026. M. H. Hedroug opened the scoring 53 minutes into the game for Témouchent to make it 1-0. O. Diakite levelled it 69 minutes into the game for ASO Chlef to make it 1-1. A. Meddah (5'), M. H. Hedroug (54') and K. Baaziz (61') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: ASO Chlef are 58 points stronger than Témouchent. The card tally for Témouchent was three yellow cards. Témouchent made four changes. ASO Chlef: three substitutions.