Rated 1593 and 1537, these two produce a 54.8% / 23.8% / 21.5% split. The two halves pull apart — JS El Biar better going forward at 1.18, CS Constantine tighter at the back on 1.08.
On expected goals the model has it 1.71 against 1.72. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +93 and +37. JS El Biar's side of that rests on 6 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. A 31.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Between best and worst outcome there is 33.3 points of daylight. The home side is rated higher. Elo expected shares: 66.7% and 33.3%. 76.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 56 points. The model's preferred outcome is CS Constantine at 54.8%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 9.5%. In absolute terms: CS Constantine 1.03/1.08, JS El Biar 1.18/1.12 on attack and defence. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. It ended 2-4.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
CS Constantine's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 8 conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat away to Khenchela on 12 October; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to US Biskra on 7 October.
CS Constantine visited Khenchela on 12 October (Algeria Ligue 1) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. US Biskra travelled to face CS Constantine (Algeria Ligue 1) on 7 October. For CS Constantine, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 1-5 was CS Constantine's result against ES Setif on 19 September (Algeria Ligue 1), playing away from home; CS Constantine lost, with one scored to five conceded. The 12 September fixture (Algeria Ligue 1) paired CS Constantine with ASO Chlef. CS Constantine won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Témouchent (Algeria Ligue 1), CS Constantine finished 1-1 on 5 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
JS El Biar came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding nine. A 3-2 defeat at home to CR Belouizdad (12 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to JS Saoura on 18 September.
The 12 October fixture (Algeria Ligue 1) paired JS El Biar with CR Belouizdad. JS El Biar lost 2-3 at home, netting two goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Ben Aknoun (Algeria Ligue 1), JS El Biar finished 2-2 on 7 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 18 September: JS El Biar won 4-0 against JS Saoura at home in Algeria Ligue 1, scoring four goals and allowing zero. Against USM Alger in Algeria Ligue 1, JS El Biar scored zero and conceded two on 10 September; the away from home result was 0-2. JS El Biar's at home game on 3 September (Algeria Ligue 1) ended 0-2 against Olympique Akbou, with zero goals for and two against.
After the match
JS El Biar beat CS Constantine 4-2 on 17 October 2026. D. Mouaki opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for JS El Biar to make it 1-0. D. Mouaki added to the tally in the 27th minute for JS El Biar to make it 2-0. M. Rebiai pulled one back in the 31st minute for CS Constantine to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, JS El Biar extended the lead through K. Aribi from the penalty spot in the 38th minute to make it 3-1. D. Mouaki scored the 5th goal for JS El Biar 48 minutes into the game as they extended the lead to make it 4-1. With the 6th goal, CS Constantine reduced the deficit through M. Belgourai 51 minutes into the game to make it 2-4. 8 players were booked, among them (37'), (46'), (48'), D. Bizimana (62'), M. Bouchina (68') and (77'). Our current Elo ratings make CS Constantine slightly the stronger side, by 56 rating points over JS El Biar, even though it was JS El Biar who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives JS El Biar only a 21.5% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts JS El Biar at around 1.72 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. The card tally for CS Constantine was four yellow cards. CS Constantine made one change. JS El Biar: four yellow cards. four changes were recorded for JS El Biar.