Neither win dominates this distribution — the draw takes 26.8% against 31.6% and 41.6%.
A 100-point difference on the rating scale. The scoreline spread is even — 0-1 on 14.4% leads, but only just. Témouchent's side of that rests on 5 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. MB Rouisset's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 55.0%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The model gives 73.2% to someone winning. A 10.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-1. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -11 and +89. The tie closed out 0-2. Honours split: 0.81 forward for Témouchent, 0.78 back for MB Rouisset. Raw profiles are 0.81 and 0.97 against 0.78 and 0.78. Spread across the three results is 14.8 points. Expected goals sit at 0.94 against 1.02. The model's preferred outcome is MB Rouisset at 41.6%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Témouchent came into the game with one win, one draw and two defeats from their last four outings, scoring two goals and conceding four. A 1-0 defeat away to MC Alger (9 October) was their most recent result.
Algeria Ligue 1, 9 October brought an away meeting with MC Alger; Témouchent lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Témouchent hosted JS Kabylie on 17 September (Algeria Ligue 1) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. MC Oran hosted Témouchent (Algeria Ligue 1) on 11 September. For Témouchent, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Témouchent's result against CS Constantine on 5 September (Algeria Ligue 1), playing at home; Témouchent drew, with one scored to one conceded.
MB Rouisset came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring three goals and conceding four, failing to score in three of those games. A 1-0 win at home to USM Alger (8 October) was their most recent result.
Algeria Ligue 1, 8 October brought a home meeting with USM Alger; MB Rouisset won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. MB Rouisset visited MC Alger on 18 September (Algeria Ligue 1) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Olympique Akbou travelled to face MB Rouisset (Algeria Ligue 1) on 12 September. For MB Rouisset, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 0-1 was MB Rouisset's result against JS Kabylie on 4 September (Algeria Ligue 1), playing away from home; MB Rouisset lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 5 June fixture (Algeria Ligue 1) paired MB Rouisset with Khenchela. MB Rouisset lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one.
After the match
MB Rouisset beat Témouchent 2-0 on 14 October 2026. H. Fatawu opened the scoring in the 30th minute for MB Rouisset to make it 1-0. A. K. Amqran added to the tally 74 minutes into the game for MB Rouisset to make it 2-0. M. Senhadji (34') was sent off. (39'), I. Saihi (41') and (92') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have MB Rouisset 100 points stronger than Témouchent. The card tally for Témouchent was one yellow card and one red card. Témouchent made three changes. MB Rouisset picked up two yellow cards. MB Rouisset: four substitutions. MB Rouisset conceded no goals.