On file: 30 previous meetings dating to 2011, 30-28 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-5 in Algeria Ligue 1. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1634 and 1694 — 60 points — for a 36.8% / 27.8% / 35.4% split.
Only 1.4 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. The away side is rated higher. Distance between the ratings: 60 points, moderate on this scale. JS Kabylie's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 49.3%. Both components point the same way, toward JS Kabylie: 0.91 to 0.87 going forward, 0.68 to 0.76 going back. In absolute terms: ES Setif 0.87/0.76, JS Kabylie 0.91/0.68 on attack and defence. 36.8% goes to ES Setif, the model's lean. Expected goals 0.88-0.94. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +134 and +194. Reduced to one result that is 0-0. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Most weight falls on 0-0 at 16.2%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 473 and 490 rated matches respectively. The three outcomes sit within 9.0 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
ES Setif: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; seven goals scored, three conceded, failing to score in three of those games. MC Oran were their latest opponents, away on 8 October: a 0-0 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to CS Constantine on 19 September.
ES Setif visited MC Oran on 8 October (Algeria Ligue 1) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. CS Constantine travelled to face ES Setif (Algeria Ligue 1) on 19 September. For ES Setif, the score was 5-1: five goals scored, one allowed. 0-1 was ES Setif's result against CR Belouizdad on 11 September (Algeria Ligue 1), playing away from home; ES Setif lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 3 September fixture (Algeria Ligue 1) paired ES Setif with Ben Aknoun. ES Setif lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Paradou AC (Algeria Ligue 1), ES Setif finished 2-0 on 5 June. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition.
JS Kabylie's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 2 conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: a 1-0 win at home to ASO Chlef on 9 October.
Against ASO Chlef in Algeria Ligue 1, JS Kabylie scored one and conceded zero on 9 October; the at home result was 1-0. JS Kabylie's away from home game on 17 September (Algeria Ligue 1) ended 0-1 against Témouchent, with zero goals for and one against. On 4 September, MB Rouisset faced JS Kabylie in Algeria Ligue 1: JS Kabylie won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. Algeria Ligue 1, 5 June brought a home meeting with CR Belouizdad; JS Kabylie drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. JS Kabylie visited ASO Chlef on 20 May (Algeria Ligue 1) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded.
The last two recorded meetings were a 5-1 home win for JS Kabylie on 8 May and a 1-0 home win for ES Setif on 19 December 2025.
After the match
ES Setif and JS Kabylie drew 1-1 on 14 October 2026. R. Benayad opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for ES Setif to make it 1-0. B. Messaoudi levelled it in the 33rd minute for JS Kabylie to make it 1-1. L. Tabti (25'), M. Omfia (55') and N. El Abd (76') were booked. ES Setif: two yellow cards. three changes were recorded for ES Setif. JS Kabylie picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for JS Kabylie was two.