The ratings are far apart — 1786 against 1509, 277 points — and the model turns that into 12.5% / 20.6% / 67.0%.
On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 277 points. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.96 and 1.84. Rounded, that is 0-1. The higher rating belongs to the away side. A 46.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 0-1 at 11.2%. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The three results cover 54.5 points. Someone wins 79.5% of the time by this model. Most likely single result is CR Belouizdad on 67.0%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +9 and +286. There is no trade-off to weigh: CR Belouizdad scores at the higher rate (1.25 to 1.06) and concedes at the lower (0.61 to 1.09). The match finished 2-3. Only 5 rated matches back the JS El Biar figure. By expected share of the points: 22.8% and 77.2%. Raw profiles are 1.06 and 1.09 against 1.25 and 0.61.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
six goals for and six against accompanied JS El Biar's one win, one draw and two defeats across four outings. On 7 October, JS El Biar recorded a 2-2 draw visiting Ben Aknoun; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to JS Saoura on 18 September.
Ben Aknoun hosted JS El Biar (Algeria Ligue 1) on 7 October. For JS El Biar, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 4-0 was JS El Biar's result against JS Saoura on 18 September (Algeria Ligue 1), playing at home; JS El Biar won, with four scored to zero conceded. The 10 September fixture (Algeria Ligue 1) paired JS El Biar with USM Alger. JS El Biar lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Olympique Akbou (Algeria Ligue 1), JS El Biar finished 0-2 on 3 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition.
CR Belouizdad's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 3 conceded, keeping four clean sheets, with no defeats. Latest: a 1-0 win at home to Khenchela on 7 October.
On 7 October, Khenchela faced CR Belouizdad in Algeria Ligue 1: CR Belouizdad won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. Algeria Ligue 1, 17 September brought an away meeting with US Biskra; CR Belouizdad won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. CR Belouizdad hosted ES Setif on 11 September (Algeria Ligue 1) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. ASO Chlef hosted CR Belouizdad (Algeria Ligue 1) on 5 September. For CR Belouizdad, the score was 3-3: three goals scored, three allowed. 0-0 was CR Belouizdad's result against JS Kabylie on 5 June (Algeria Ligue 1), playing away from home; CR Belouizdad drew, with zero scored to zero conceded.
After the match
CR Belouizdad edged past JS El Biar 3-2 on 12 October 2026. M. Ben Hammouda opened the scoring inside the first minute for CR Belouizdad to make it 1-0. K. Aribi levelled it inside the first 11 minutes for JS El Biar to make it 1-1. CR Belouizdad regained the lead through K. Boualia in the 36th minute to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, JS El Biar drew level through K. Aribi 56 minutes into the game to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, CR Belouizdad restored the lead through F. El Melali 69 minutes into the game to make it 3-2. 7 players were booked, among them D. Boukerma (47'), A. Bangoura (58'), D. Kaassis (62'), M. Guemroud (64'), (85') and L. Boussouar (85'). 67% is CR Belouizdad's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. CR Belouizdad's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins. The card tally for JS El Biar was four yellow cards. JS El Biar made five changes. CR Belouizdad: three yellow cards. CR Belouizdad made five changes.