Prior record: 3-3-2 across 8 since 2011. Most recent 2023, 0-1 in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. The live ratings are 1518 and 1408, giving 62.4% / 21.9% / 15.8%.
Neither component contradicts the other: CA Bizertin leads 0.58-0.54 forward and 0.67-1.09 back. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The tie closed out 3-1. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-0. Top of the distribution: CA Bizertin, 62.4%. Neither figure is thin: 397 and 95 matches respectively sit behind them. The xG line reads 0.94 to 0.49. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The distribution runs from 62.4% down to 15.8%. Higher rating: the home side. Someone wins 78.2% of the time by this model. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 23.9%, clear of 1-0 on 22.5%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.58/0.67 and 0.54/1.09. Rating separation comes to 110 points. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +18 and -92. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 73.3% to 26.7%. CA Bizertin leads the distribution by 40.5 points over the draw.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
CA Bizertin came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring three goals and conceding three, keeping three clean sheets. A 0-0 draw at home to US Monastirienne (10 October) was their most recent result.
The 10 October fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired CA Bizertin with US Monastirienne. CA Bizertin drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against CS Sfaxien (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), CA Bizertin finished 0-2 on 20 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 5 September: CA Bizertin drew 1-1 against Olympique Béja at home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against CS Hammam-Lif in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, CA Bizertin scored one and conceded zero on 30 August; the away from home result was 1-0. CA Bizertin's at home game on 23 August (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 1-0 against AS Marsa, with one goal for and zero against.
one goal for and nine against accompanied ES Hammam-Sousse's five defeats across five outings, failing to score in four of those games, a winless run. On 17 October, ES Hammam-Sousse recorded a 2-0 defeat hosting US Ben Guerdane.
The 17 October fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired ES Hammam-Sousse with US Ben Guerdane. ES Hammam-Sousse lost 0-2 at home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against ES Zarzis (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), ES Hammam-Sousse finished 0-2 on 11 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 12 September: ES Hammam-Sousse lost 1-3 against Stade Tunisien at home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring one goal and allowing three. Against ES Metlaoui in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, ES Hammam-Sousse scored zero and conceded one on 6 September; the away from home result was 0-1. ES Hammam-Sousse's away from home game on 29 August (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 0-1 against Club Africain, with zero goals for and one against.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 home win for ES Hammam-Sousse on 27 May 2023 and a 2-2 draw at CA Bizertin on 26 April 2023.
After the match
CA Bizertin beat ES Hammam-Sousse 3-1 on 23 October 2026. W. Chihi opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for CA Bizertin to make it 1-0. M. A. Jarraya levelled it in the 32nd minute for ES Hammam-Sousse to make it 1-1. CA Bizertin regained the lead through W. Timi 47 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. CA Bizertin added to the tally in the 99th minute for CA Bizertin to make it 3-1. N. El Beji (90') was sent off. O. Tenguiano (39'), (77') and M. Doukali (86') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have CA Bizertin 110 points stronger than ES Hammam-Sousse. 62.4% is CA Bizertin's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. On current ratings the model puts CA Bizertin at around 0.94 gols in this pairing; they scored 3 here. ES Hammam-Sousse's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive defeats in the 2022/23 Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 and the 2026/27 Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. two yellow cards went to CA Bizertin. The substitution total for CA Bizertin was five. ES Hammam-Sousse: one yellow card and one red card. five changes were recorded for ES Hammam-Sousse.