Across 16 recorded meetings back to 2016 the split is 6-6-4 in US Ben Guerdane's favour on wins, 15-10 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-0 in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. Against that, current ratings read 1602 and 1625, a 23-point margin, and the model splits the tie 42.7% / 26.5% / 30.7%.
The away side is rated higher. The rating gap itself is 23 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. Outcomes span 16.2 points. A 12.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. 0-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 31.0%. Raw profiles are 0.75 and 0.56 against 0.72 and 0.56. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +102 and +125. The model's preferred outcome is US Ben Guerdane at 42.7%. A decisive result carries 73.4% against 26.5% for the draw. Played and finished 1-0. Neither side holds a component edge worth the name: scoring rates of 0.75 against 0.72, conceding rates of 0.56 against 0.56. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Reduced to one result that is 0-0. The ratings draw on 303 and 349 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
nine goals for and five against accompanied US Ben Guerdane's three wins and two draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. On 17 October, US Ben Guerdane recorded a 2-0 win visiting ES Hammam-Sousse.
US Ben Guerdane's away from home game on 17 October (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 2-0 against ES Hammam-Sousse, with two goals for and zero against. On 10 October, Club Africain faced US Ben Guerdane in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1: US Ben Guerdane won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, 20 September brought a home meeting with CS Hammam-Lif; US Ben Guerdane won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. US Ben Guerdane hosted CS Sfaxien on 16 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. US Monastirienne hosted US Ben Guerdane (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) on 12 September. For US Ben Guerdane, the score was 3-3: three goals scored, three allowed.
eight goals for and five against accompanied Stade Tunisien's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 11 October, Stade Tunisien recorded a 2-1 win visiting ES Metlaoui.
The 11 October fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired Stade Tunisien with ES Metlaoui. Stade Tunisien won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against ES Hammam-Sousse (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), Stade Tunisien finished 3-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 29 August: Stade Tunisien lost 1-2 against US Monastirienne away from home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against CS Sfaxien in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, Stade Tunisien scored one and conceded one on 22 August; the at home result was 1-1. Stade Tunisien's away from home game on 13 May (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 1-0 against AS Gabes, with one goal for and zero against.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 0-0 draw at Stade Tunisien on 8 May and a 1-0 home win for US Ben Guerdane on 9 November 2025.
After the match
US Ben Guerdane edged past Stade Tunisien 1-0 on 23 October 2026. A. Diakite opened the scoring 73 minutes into the game for US Ben Guerdane to make it 1-0. J. Abcha (5'), (52'), I. Touis (54'), A. Saihi (65') and A. Amri (86') were booked. US Ben Guerdane's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins. three yellow cards went to US Ben Guerdane. The substitution total for US Ben Guerdane was five. two yellow cards went to Stade Tunisien. Stade Tunisien: three substitutions. US Ben Guerdane conceded no goals.