One half each — Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer in front on 0.87, US Monastirienne behind on 0.51. On rating it is 1654 against 1535, which the model resolves to 63.6% / 21.5% / 14.9%.
Result on the day: 1-0. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +154 and +35. Distance between the ratings: 119 points, wide on this scale. Attack/defence pairs: 0.81/0.51 and 0.87/0.77. A 48.7-point range top to bottom. 63.6% goes to US Monastirienne, the model's lean. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. US Monastirienne leads the distribution by 42.1 points over the draw. 78.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Expected goals come out at 0.93 to 0.60. The Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer figure is drawn from 6 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. 0-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 21.6%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 74.3% to 25.7%. Rounded, that is 0-0.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and five against accompanied US Monastirienne's two wins and three draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. On 10 October, US Monastirienne recorded a 0-0 draw visiting CA Bizertin.
CA Bizertin hosted US Monastirienne (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) on 10 October. For US Monastirienne, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 2-1 was US Monastirienne's result against ES Zarzis on 16 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), playing away from home; US Monastirienne won, with two scored to one conceded. The 12 September fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired US Monastirienne with US Ben Guerdane. US Monastirienne drew 3-3 at home, netting three goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Stade Tunisien (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), US Monastirienne finished 2-1 on 29 August. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 22 August: US Monastirienne drew 0-0 against ES Hammam-Sousse away from home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring zero goals and allowing zero.
five goals for and one against accompanied Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's three wins and two draws across five outings, keeping four clean sheets, an unbeaten run. On 10 October, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer recorded a 1-0 win hosting CS Sfaxien.
10 October: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer won 1-0 against CS Sfaxien at home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Olympique Béja in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scored one and conceded one on 13 September; the away from home result was 1-1. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's at home game on 5 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 1-0 against CS Hammam-Lif, with one goal for and zero against. On 29 August, AS Marsa faced Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, 22 August brought a home meeting with Jeunesse Sportive Omrane; Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded.
After the match
US Monastirienne edged past Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1-0 at Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet, Monastir on 18 October 2026. S. Barhoumi opened the scoring 63 minutes into the game for US Monastirienne to make it 1-0. A. Ba (3'), R. Azzouz (17'), (51'), A. Chouaya (67'), R. Boukadida (85') and (87') were booked. US Monastirienne's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 63.6% for a win in this pairing. US Monastirienne are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form. US Monastirienne: two yellow cards. three changes were recorded for US Monastirienne. The card tally for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer was four yellow cards. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer made three changes. A clean sheet for US Monastirienne.