At 26.6% the draw is close to the most likely single outcome.
The higher rating expects 55.7% of the points, the lower 44.3%. Outcomes span 15.7 points. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane holds both halves of the profile — 0.67 against 0.42 for scoring, 0.81 against 0.84 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-0. Win-or-lose totals 73.4%; the draw takes the rest. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 105 points. It ended 1-1. The gap between first and second outcome is 11.2 points, Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ahead of CS Hammam-Lif. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. On expected goals the model has it 0.51 against 0.76. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 28.1%, clear of 0-1 on 21.4%. With 234 and 66 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Top of the distribution: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, 42.3%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -88 and +17.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
CS Hammam-Lif: one win and four defeats over five games; one goal scored, four conceded, failing to score in four of those games. Latest: a 1-0 win away to ES Sahel on 11 October.
Against ES Sahel in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, CS Hammam-Lif scored one and conceded zero on 11 October; the away from home result was 1-0. CS Hammam-Lif's away from home game on 20 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 0-1 against US Ben Guerdane, with zero goals for and one against. On 13 September, ES Tunis faced CS Hammam-Lif in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1: CS Hammam-Lif lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one. Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, 5 September brought an away meeting with Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer; CS Hammam-Lif lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. CS Hammam-Lif hosted CA Bizertin on 30 August (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded.
five goals for and four against accompanied Jeunesse Sportive Omrane's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. On 11 October, Jeunesse Sportive Omrane recorded a 0-0 draw hosting AS Marsa.
AS Marsa travelled to face Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) on 11 October. For Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 1-0 was Jeunesse Sportive Omrane's result against ES Metlaoui on 13 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), playing at home; Jeunesse Sportive Omrane won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 6 September fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired Jeunesse Sportive Omrane with ES Sahel. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against ES Tunis (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), Jeunesse Sportive Omrane finished 3-1 on 30 August. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 22 August: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane lost 0-2 against Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away from home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring zero goals and allowing two.
After the match
CS Hammam-Lif and Jeunesse Sportive Omrane drew 1-1 on 18 October 2026. O. Belhaj opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 19th minute for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane to make it 1-0. Z. Ben Salem levelled it in the 25th minute for CS Hammam-Lif to make it 1-1. Z. Ben Salem (30') was sent off. B. Touati (59'), S. Marouani (60'), M. Souissi (73'), A. Jouini (84') and (89') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 105 points stronger than CS Hammam-Lif. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form. The card tally for CS Hammam-Lif was one red card. four changes were recorded for CS Hammam-Lif. five yellow cards went to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane: three substitutions.