On record: 2 meetings from 2021, 2-3 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2022, 1-1 in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1420 and 1589 — 169 points — for a 23.2% / 24.3% / 52.5% split.
The leading outcome clears the second by 28.2 points. On expected goals the model has it 0.46 against 1.03. Higher rating: the away side. A decisive result carries 75.7% against 24.3% for the draw. Neither component contradicts the other: US Ben Guerdane leads 0.75-0.52 forward and 0.59-1.02 back. The match finished 0-2. Raw profiles are 0.52 and 1.02 against 0.75 and 0.59. Expected shares 35.5% against 64.5% on Elo. Rounded, that is 0-1. Rating separation comes to 169 points. A 29.3-point range top to bottom. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. With 94 and 302 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The distribution peaks at 0-1, 23.2%, with 0-0 behind it at 22.5%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -80 and +89.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
one goal for and seven against accompanied ES Hammam-Sousse's one draw and four defeats across five outings, failing to score in four of those games, a winless run. On 11 October, ES Hammam-Sousse recorded a 2-0 defeat visiting ES Zarzis.
11 October: ES Hammam-Sousse lost 0-2 against ES Zarzis away from home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Stade Tunisien in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, ES Hammam-Sousse scored one and conceded three on 12 September; the at home result was 1-3. ES Hammam-Sousse's away from home game on 6 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 0-1 against ES Metlaoui, with zero goals for and one against. On 29 August, Club Africain faced ES Hammam-Sousse in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1: ES Hammam-Sousse lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one. Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, 22 August brought a home meeting with US Monastirienne; ES Hammam-Sousse drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded.
US Ben Guerdane: three wins and two draws over five games; nine goals scored, six conceded, unbeaten. Club Africain were their latest opponents, at home on 10 October: a 2-1 win.
US Ben Guerdane hosted Club Africain on 10 October (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. CS Hammam-Lif travelled to face US Ben Guerdane (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) on 20 September. For US Ben Guerdane, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was US Ben Guerdane's result against CS Sfaxien on 16 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), playing at home; US Ben Guerdane drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 12 September fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired US Ben Guerdane with US Monastirienne. US Ben Guerdane drew 3-3 away from home, netting three goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Olympique Béja (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), US Ben Guerdane finished 2-1 on 30 August. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-1 draw at ES Hammam-Sousse on 10 April 2022 and a 2-1 home win for US Ben Guerdane on 18 November 2021.
After the match
US Ben Guerdane beat ES Hammam-Sousse 2-0 on 17 October 2026. G. Ayadi opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 29th minute for US Ben Guerdane to make it 1-0. US Ben Guerdane added to the tally 75 minutes into the game for US Ben Guerdane to make it 2-0. (19'), (30'), (54'), (57'), (74') and (75') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have US Ben Guerdane 169 points stronger than ES Hammam-Sousse. ES Hammam-Sousse's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2022/23 Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 and the 2026/27 Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. US Ben Guerdane are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form. ES Hammam-Sousse: five yellow cards. US Ben Guerdane: one yellow card. US Ben Guerdane finished with a clean sheet.