36 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 24-35. The latest was 2026, 0-0 in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. Today those sides rate 1741 and 1773, 32 apart, which resolves to 41.3% / 26.8% / 31.8%.
Most and least likely outcomes are 14.5 points apart. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Expected shares on the Elo curve: 54.7% and 45.3%. The model gives 73.1% to someone winning. It ended 0-0. 41.3% goes to CS Sfaxien, the model's lean. Raw profiles are 0.96 and 0.34 against 0.93 and 0.51. xG: 0.73 to 0.42. A 9.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Its rounded call is 0-0. Most weight falls on 0-0 at 31.5%. Behind them are 412 and 482 rated matches. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +241 and +273. Neither component contradicts the other: CS Sfaxien leads 0.96-0.93 forward and 0.34-0.51 back. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 32 points. The away side is rated higher.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
CS Sfaxien's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 4 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer on 10 October.
Against Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, CS Sfaxien scored zero and conceded one on 10 October; the away from home result was 0-1. CS Sfaxien's at home game on 20 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 2-0 against CA Bizertin, with two goals for and zero against. On 16 September, US Ben Guerdane faced CS Sfaxien in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1: CS Sfaxien drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, 29 August brought a home meeting with ES Zarzis; CS Sfaxien won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. CS Sfaxien visited Stade Tunisien on 22 August (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.
seven goals for and three against accompanied ES Tunis's four wins and one defeat across five outings. On 24 October, ES Tunis recorded a 1-0 win hosting Asswehly.
24 October: ES Tunis won 1-0 against Asswehly at home in CAF Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Asswehly in CAF Champions League, ES Tunis scored zero and conceded one on 18 October; the away from home result was 0-1. ES Tunis's at home game on 10 October (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 3-1 against Olympique Béja, with three goals for and one against. On 13 September, CS Hammam-Lif faced ES Tunis in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1: ES Tunis won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, 6 September brought a home meeting with AS Marsa; ES Tunis won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
The last two recorded meetings were a 0-0 draw at ES Tunis on 30 April and a 2-1 away win for ES Tunis on 2 November 2025.
After the match
CS Sfaxien and ES Tunis could not be separated in a goalless draw on 29 October 2026. M. S. Mhadhebi (36'), J. Castillo (66'), A. Maaloul (84') and R. Chikhaoui (86') were booked. CS Sfaxien picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for CS Sfaxien was three. ES Tunis: two yellow cards. four changes were recorded for ES Tunis. CS Sfaxien conceded no goals. ES Tunis finished with a clean sheet.