On record: 4 meetings from 2012, 3-4 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2022, 1-1 in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. Today those sides rate 1569 and 1467, 102 apart, which resolves to 61.1% / 22.2% / 16.7%.
Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The four component numbers read 0.77, 0.66, 0.70, 0.95. A 38.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Result on the day: 2-0. Top of the distribution: ES Zarzis, 61.1%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The higher rating expects 72.3% of the points, the lower 27.7%. Expected goals 1.09-0.63. Both figures rest on decent samples, 239 and 88 matches. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 19.5%, clear of 0-0 on 17.9%. ES Zarzis holds both halves of the profile — 0.77 against 0.70 for scoring, 0.66 against 0.95 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Reduced to one result that is 1-0. Spread across the three results is 44.4 points. Someone wins 77.8% of the time by this model.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
ES Zarzis came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding five. A 1-0 defeat away to Club Africain (20 September) was their most recent result.
Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, 20 September brought an away meeting with Club Africain; ES Zarzis lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. ES Zarzis hosted US Monastirienne on 16 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. CS Sfaxien hosted ES Zarzis (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) on 29 August. For ES Zarzis, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 1-0 was ES Zarzis's result against Olympique Béja on 23 August (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), playing at home; ES Zarzis won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 13 May fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired ES Zarzis with CA Bizertin. ES Zarzis won 2-0 away from home, netting two goals while conceding zero.
two goals for and five against accompanied ES Hammam-Sousse's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. On 12 September, ES Hammam-Sousse recorded a 3-1 defeat hosting Stade Tunisien.
The 12 September fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired ES Hammam-Sousse with Stade Tunisien. ES Hammam-Sousse lost 1-3 at home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing away from home against ES Metlaoui (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), ES Hammam-Sousse finished 0-1 on 6 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 29 August: ES Hammam-Sousse lost 0-1 against Club Africain away from home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against US Monastirienne in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, ES Hammam-Sousse scored zero and conceded zero on 22 August; the at home result was 0-0. ES Hammam-Sousse's at home game on 27 May 2023 (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 1-0 against CA Bizertin, with one goal for and zero against.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-1 draw at ES Zarzis on 29 May 2022 and a 1-1 draw at ES Hammam-Sousse on 18 May 2022.
After the match
ES Zarzis beat ES Hammam-Sousse 2-0 on 11 October 2026. M. Jertila opened the scoring 48 minutes into the game for ES Zarzis to make it 1-0. H. Labidi added to the tally 69 minutes into the game for ES Zarzis to make it 2-0. (12'), (49'), (52'), (58') and (72') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have ES Zarzis 102 points stronger than ES Hammam-Sousse. 61.1% is ES Zarzis's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. ES Hammam-Sousse's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2022/23 Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 and the 2026/27 Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. four yellow cards went to ES Zarzis. ES Hammam-Sousse: one yellow card. ES Zarzis kept their opponents scoreless.