On file: 20 previous meetings dating to 2013, 16-20 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-0 in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. Today those sides rate 1559 and 1618, 59 apart, which resolves to 37.0% / 27.8% / 35.2%.
59 points of rating separation. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 348 and 344 rated matches respectively. Win-or-lose totals 72.2%; the draw takes the rest. Attack/defence pairs: 0.53/0.62 and 0.61/0.45. The away side is rated higher. Played and finished 1-2. Only 1.8 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Stade Tunisien's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 49.1%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Most weight falls on 0-0 at 42.1%. All three results are bunched inside 9.2 points. 37.0% goes to ES Metlaoui, the model's lean. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Expected goals come out at 0.36 to 0.51. Its point estimate is 0-0. Stade Tunisien holds both halves of the profile — 0.61 against 0.53 for scoring, 0.45 against 0.62 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +59 and +118.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
two goals for and four against accompanied ES Metlaoui's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. On 13 September, ES Metlaoui recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting Jeunesse Sportive Omrane.
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane hosted ES Metlaoui (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) on 13 September. For ES Metlaoui, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-0 was ES Metlaoui's result against ES Hammam-Sousse on 6 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), playing at home; ES Metlaoui won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 30 August fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired ES Metlaoui with ES Sahel. ES Metlaoui lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against Club Africain (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), ES Metlaoui finished 0-1 on 23 August. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 14 May: ES Metlaoui drew 0-0 against JS Kairouanaise at home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring zero goals and allowing zero.
Stade Tunisien came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding four. A 3-1 win away to ES Hammam-Sousse (12 September) was their most recent result.
ES Hammam-Sousse hosted Stade Tunisien (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) on 12 September. For Stade Tunisien, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 1-2 was Stade Tunisien's result against US Monastirienne on 29 August (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), playing away from home; Stade Tunisien lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 22 August fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired Stade Tunisien with CS Sfaxien. Stade Tunisien drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against AS Gabes (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), Stade Tunisien finished 1-0 on 13 May. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 8 May: Stade Tunisien drew 0-0 against US Ben Guerdane at home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring zero goals and allowing zero.
The last two recorded meetings were a 0-0 draw at ES Metlaoui on 1 February and a 2-0 home win for Stade Tunisien on 27 August 2025.
After the match
Stade Tunisien edged past ES Metlaoui 2-1 on 11 October 2026. C. Bodian opened the scoring in the 41st minute for ES Metlaoui to make it 1-0. Stade Tunisien levelled it late on, in the 81st minute for Stade Tunisien to make it 1-1. Stade Tunisien went in front in the 101st minute to make it 2-1. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. The scoring record shows one lead change. Stade Tunisien won after falling behind.