Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-1-1 from Jeunesse Sportive Omrane's side on wins, 3-4 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-2 in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. History aside, the live ratings of 1487 and 1469 drive a 49.2% / 25.1% / 25.7% distribution.
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane carries the largest share, 49.2%. Played and finished 0-0. The ratings draw on 60 and 57 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Expected goals sit at 0.86 against 0.78. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Raw profiles are 0.64 and 0.91 against 0.63 and 0.91. The underlying rates are near-identical — attack 0.64 against 0.63, defence 0.91 against 0.91. Rounded, that is 0-0. Win-or-lose totals 74.9%; the draw takes the rest. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 61.7%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -13 and -31. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane sits 23.5 points above the next most likely result. 0-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 19.4%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The distribution runs from 49.2% down to 25.1%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, six conceded. ES Metlaoui were their latest opponents, at home on 13 September: a 1-0 win.
1-0 was Jeunesse Sportive Omrane's result against ES Metlaoui on 13 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), playing at home; Jeunesse Sportive Omrane won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 6 September fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired Jeunesse Sportive Omrane with ES Sahel. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against ES Tunis (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), Jeunesse Sportive Omrane finished 3-1 on 30 August. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 22 August: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane lost 0-2 against Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away from home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against AS Marsa in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scored two and conceded two on 12 May; the at home result was 2-2.
AS Marsa came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring four goals and conceding five. A 1-0 win at home to ES Sahel (12 September) was their most recent result.
ES Sahel travelled to face AS Marsa (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) on 12 September. For AS Marsa, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-2 was AS Marsa's result against ES Tunis on 6 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), playing away from home; AS Marsa lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 29 August fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired AS Marsa with Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer. AS Marsa drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against CA Bizertin (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), AS Marsa finished 0-1 on 23 August. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 12 May: AS Marsa drew 2-2 against Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away from home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring two goals and allowing two.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-2 draw at Jeunesse Sportive Omrane on 12 May and a 2-1 home win for AS Marsa on 22 November 2025.
After the match
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and AS Marsa could not be separated in a goalless draw on 11 October 2026. (65'), (67'), (81') and (86') were booked. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. The card tally for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane was two yellow cards. AS Marsa: two yellow cards. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane finished with a clean sheet. A clean sheet for AS Marsa.