On file: 16 previous meetings dating to 2012, 30-11 on goals. Last time: 2026, 3-0 in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1. Currently 1809 against 1478 — a 83.2% / 15.0% / 1.8% split.
First to second is a 68.2-point step, ES Tunis over the draw. The model gives 85.0% to someone winning. The four component numbers read 0.92, 0.41, 0.53, 0.91. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Spread across the three results is 81.4 points. Rounded, that is 1-0. Final score: 3-1. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. ES Tunis carries the largest share, 83.2%. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 26.7%, clear of 0-0 on 21.5%. Rating separation comes to 331 points. Behind them are 474 and 248 rated matches. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 90.7% to 9.3%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Expected goals sit at 1.24 against 0.30. Both components point the same way, toward ES Tunis: 0.92 to 0.53 going forward, 0.41 to 0.91 going back. Versus the 1500 seed: +309 and -22.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
ES Tunis: four wins and one defeat over five games; eight goals scored, six conceded. CS Hammam-Lif were their latest opponents, away on 13 September: a 1-0 win.
Playing away from home against CS Hammam-Lif (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), ES Tunis finished 1-0 on 13 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 6 September: ES Tunis won 2-1 against AS Marsa at home in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Jeunesse Sportive Omrane in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, ES Tunis scored one and conceded three on 30 August; the away from home result was 1-3. ES Tunis's at home game on 23 August (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 3-2 against ES Sahel, with three goals for and two against. On 14 May, US Ben Guerdane faced ES Tunis in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1: ES Tunis won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero.
four goals for and six against accompanied Olympique Béja's three draws and two defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 13 September, Olympique Béja recorded a 1-1 draw hosting Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer.
Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, 13 September brought a home meeting with Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer; Olympique Béja drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Olympique Béja visited CA Bizertin on 5 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. US Ben Guerdane travelled to face Olympique Béja (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) on 30 August. For Olympique Béja, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 0-1 was Olympique Béja's result against ES Zarzis on 23 August (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), playing away from home; Olympique Béja lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 14 May fixture (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) paired Olympique Béja with Club Africain. Olympique Béja drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one.
Previous meetings in our records: a 3-0 away win for ES Tunis on 1 March and a 2-0 home win for ES Tunis on 24 September 2025.
After the match
ES Tunis beat Olympique Béja 3-1 at Stade Hedi-Enneifer, Le Bardo on 10 October 2026. H. Mastouri opened the scoring inside the first minute for ES Tunis to make it 1-0. H. Mastouri added to the tally inside the first 13 minutes for ES Tunis to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, ES Tunis extended the lead through H. Mastouri 48 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Olympique Béja got one back 59 minutes into the game for Olympique Béja to make it 1-3. (12'), (36'), (82') and (89') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have ES Tunis 331 points stronger than Olympique Béja. ES Tunis's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 83.2% for a win in this pairing. ES Tunis picked up two yellow cards. two yellow cards went to Olympique Béja.