The head-to-head counts 4 recorded meetings since 2024: 3 to Al-Nassr, 0 to Al Kholood, 1 drawn, 11-4 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 3-0 in Saudi Pro League. Currently 1864 against 1505 — a 84.5% / 14.5% / 1.0% split.
In absolute terms: Al-Nassr 1.93/0.83, Al Kholood 1.08/1.51 on attack and defence. The higher rating expects 92.0% of the points, the lower 8.0%. Distance between the ratings: 359 points, wide on this scale. Neither figure is thin: 386 and 80 matches respectively sit behind them. 84.5% goes to Al-Nassr, the model's lean. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Expected goals 4.31-1.21. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 4-1. No scoreline clear 8% individually. The match finished 5-3. A 70.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The home side is rated higher. Outcomes span 83.5 points. Both components point the same way, toward Al-Nassr: 1.93 to 1.08 going forward, 0.83 to 1.51 going back. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +364 and +5. The scoreline spread is even — 4-1 on 7.0% leads, but only just. Win-or-lose totals 85.5%; the draw takes the rest.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Nassr: four wins and one defeat over five games; ten goals scored, six conceded. Latest: a 3-1 win away to Al-Faisaly FC on 23 October; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Al Diriyah on 9 October.
Against Al-Faisaly FC in Saudi Pro League, Al-Nassr scored three and conceded one on 23 October; the away from home result was 3-1. Al-Nassr's at home game on 20 October (Saudi Pro League) ended 1-0 against NEOM, with one goal for and zero against. On 12 October, Neftchi faced Al-Nassr in AFC Champions League: Al-Nassr won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one. Saudi Pro League, 9 October brought a home meeting with Al Diriyah; Al-Nassr won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Al-Nassr visited Al Ain on 15 September (AFC Champions League) and lost 0-4; their goals totalled zero, compared with four conceded.
Al Kholood's previous five results comprised one win and four defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 14 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 3-0 defeat at home to Al-Ettifaq on 24 October.
On 24 October, Al-Ettifaq faced Al Kholood in Saudi Pro League: Al Kholood lost 0-3 at home, having scored zero and conceded three. Saudi Pro League, 15 October brought an away meeting with Al-Faisaly FC; Al Kholood lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded. Al Kholood hosted Al-Qadisiyah FC on 9 October (Saudi Pro League) and lost 0-5; their goals totalled zero, compared with five conceded. Al Riyadh hosted Al Kholood (Saudi Pro League) on 13 September. For Al Kholood, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 2-1 was Al Kholood's result against Al Shabab on 9 September (Saudi Pro League), playing at home; Al Kholood won, with two scored to one conceded.
Earlier results between these sides included a 3-0 away win for Al-Nassr on 30 January and a 2-0 home win for Al-Nassr on 14 September 2025.
After the match
Al-Nassr beat Al Kholood 5-3 at King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh on 29 October 2026. Julien Domingues opened the scoring in the 16th minute for Al Kholood, set up by Abdulrahman Al-Dosari, to make it 1-0. Angelo Borges levelled it in the 24th minute for Al-Nassr, set up by Joao Felix, to make it 1-1. Sadio Mané put Al-Nassr in front in the 38th minute, set up by Joao Felix, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Al Kholood drew level through Antoine Loic Essomba Bikoula 47 minutes into the game, set up by Julien Domingues, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Al-Nassr restored the lead through Cristiano Ronaldo 66 minutes into the game, set up by Joao Felix, to make it 3-2. Cristiano Ronaldo added to the tally 72 minutes into the game for Al-Nassr, set up by Joao Felix, to make it 4-2. With the 7th goal, Al-Nassr extended the lead through Cristiano Ronaldo late on, in the 81st minute, set up by Sadio Mané, to make it 5-2. Julien Domingues got one back from the penalty spot in the 94th minute for Al Kholood to make it 3-5. John Buckley (14'), Angelo Borges (20') and Joao Felix (46') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. 84.5% is Al-Nassr's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Al-Nassr's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. Al Kholood's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League. Expected goals put the gap at 3.7 to 1.21. two yellow cards went to Al-Nassr. Al-Nassr: five substitutions. one yellow card went to Al Kholood. Al Kholood: five substitutions. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. Al-Nassr won after falling behind.