4 meetings sit in the record, first in 2023, aggregate 8-4. The latest was 2026, 2-1 in Saudi Pro League. The present numbers are 1485 against 1478, and the model turns that into 47.5% / 25.5% / 27.0%.
Expected goals come out at 1.80 to 1.77. There is no trade-off to weigh: Al-Hazm scores at the higher rate (0.95 to 0.94) and concedes at the lower (1.29 to 1.37). First to second is a 20.5-point step, Al Khaleej Saihat over Al-Hazm. Al Khaleej Saihat's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 60.2%. In absolute terms: Al Khaleej Saihat 0.94/1.37, Al-Hazm 0.95/1.29 on attack and defence. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -15 and -22. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Scorelines above 8%: 3. 47.5% goes to Al Khaleej Saihat, the model's lean. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Behind them are 171 and 171 rated matches. It ended 4-2. Spread across the three results is 22.0 points. Someone wins 74.5% of the time by this model. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 7 points.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Khaleej Saihat came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding eight. On 23 October, Al Khaleej Saihat recorded a 4-1 defeat visiting Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Saudi Pro League, 23 October brought an away meeting with Al-Ahli Jeddah; Al Khaleej Saihat lost 1-4, a return of one goal scored and four conceded. Al Khaleej Saihat visited Al-Fateh on 18 October (Saudi Pro League) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded. Al-Fayha travelled to face Al Khaleej Saihat (Saudi Pro League) on 15 October. For Al Khaleej Saihat, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Al Khaleej Saihat's result against Al-Ettifaq on 10 October (Saudi Pro League), playing away from home; Al Khaleej Saihat drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 12 September fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al Khaleej Saihat with Al-Nassr. Al Khaleej Saihat drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one.
Al-Hazm: two draws and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, ten conceded, without a win. Latest: a 2-2 draw at home to Al-Fayha on 22 October.
Against Al-Fayha in Saudi Pro League, Al-Hazm scored two and conceded two on 22 October; the at home result was 2-2. Al-Hazm's away from home game on 19 October (Saudi Pro League) ended 0-1 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC, with zero goals for and one against. On 15 October, Al-Fateh faced Al-Hazm in Saudi Pro League: Al-Hazm lost 2-3 at home, having scored two and conceded three. Saudi Pro League, 10 October brought a home meeting with NEOM; Al-Hazm drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Al-Hazm visited Al-Ahli Jeddah on 11 September (Saudi Pro League) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-1 home win for Al Khaleej Saihat on 6 March and a 4-1 away win for Al Khaleej Saihat on 6 November 2025.
After the match
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Hazm 4-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Dammam on 29 October 2026. Musa Barrow opened the scoring in the 24th minute for Al Khaleej Saihat to make it 1-0. Sofiane Bendebka levelled it in the 39th minute for Al-Hazm to make it 1-1. Afimico Pululu put Al-Hazm in front in the 45th minute, set up by Ahmed Al-Nakhli, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Al Khaleej Saihat drew level through Boubakar Kouyate 47 minutes into the game, set up by Angelo Fulgini, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Al Khaleej Saihat restored the lead through Joshua King 73 minutes into the game, set up by Angelo Fulgini, to make it 3-2. Musa Barrow added to the tally 75 minutes into the game for Al Khaleej Saihat, set up by Angelo Fulgini, to make it 4-2. 7 players were booked, among them Fawaz Al-Sagour (35'), Boubakar Kouyate (36'), Mohammed Al Hamdani (48'), José Manuel Martins Teixeira Gomes (69'), Afimico Pululu (70') and Bonheur Mugisha (72'). On current ratings the model puts Al Khaleej Saihat at around 1.8 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Expected goals put the gap at 3.09 to 0.88. The card tally for Al Khaleej Saihat was three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Al Khaleej Saihat. Al-Hazm picked up four yellow cards. Al-Hazm: five substitutions. The scoring record shows two lead changes. The winners, Al Khaleej Saihat, had been behind.