On file: 8 previous meetings dating to 2017, 9-12 on goals. Last time: 2022, 0-0 in Saudi Pro League. Today those sides rate 1516 and 1473, 43 apart, which resolves to 52.9% / 24.2% / 22.9%.
The gap between first and second outcome is 28.7 points, Al-Fayha ahead of the draw. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Outcomes span 30.0 points. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 10.6% leads, but only just. Top of the distribution: Al-Fayha, 52.9%. Expected goals sit at 1.85 against 1.11. Raw profiles are 1.02 and 1.12 against 0.73 and 1.22. Distance between the ratings: 43 points, moderate on this scale. The higher rating expects 65.1% of the points, the lower 34.9%. Point estimate: 1-1. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 269 and 192 matches. The model gives 75.8% to someone winning. It ended 4-1. The home side is rated higher. Versus the 1500 seed: +16 and -27. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Both components point the same way, toward Al-Fayha: 1.02 to 0.73 going forward, 1.12 to 1.22 going back.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Fayha arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording three draws and two defeats, scoring five goals and conceding eight. On 22 October, Al-Fayha recorded a 2-2 draw visiting Al-Hazm.
Saudi Pro League, 22 October brought an away meeting with Al-Hazm; Al-Fayha drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Al-Fayha hosted Al-Ahli Jeddah on 19 October (Saudi Pro League) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Al Khaleej Saihat hosted Al-Fayha (Saudi Pro League) on 15 October. For Al-Fayha, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Al-Fayha's result against Al Riyadh on 11 October (Saudi Pro League), playing at home; Al-Fayha drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 12 September fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al-Fayha with Al Shabab. Al-Fayha drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero.
Al-Faisaly FC's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 10 conceded. Abha were their latest opponents, away on 27 October: a 1-0 win.
Against Abha in Saudi Pro League, Al-Faisaly FC scored one and conceded zero on 27 October; the away from home result was 1-0. Al-Faisaly FC's at home game on 23 October (Saudi Pro League) ended 1-3 against Al-Nassr, with one goal for and three against. On 19 October, Al Shabab faced Al-Faisaly FC in Saudi Pro League: Al-Faisaly FC drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two. Saudi Pro League, 15 October brought a home meeting with Al Kholood; Al-Faisaly FC won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. Al-Faisaly FC hosted Al-Ittihad FC on 11 September (Saudi Pro League) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 0-0 draw at Al-Fayha on 10 February 2022 and a 2-1 home win for Al-Faisaly FC on 16 September 2021.
After the match
Al-Fayha comfortably beat Al-Faisaly FC 4-1 on 31 October 2026. Abdulrahman Al Safari opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Al-Faisaly FC, set up by Yaseen Barnawi, to make it 1-0. Fashion Sakala levelled it in the 43rd minute for Al-Fayha, set up by Jason Remeseiro, to make it 1-1. Ziyad Al-Sahafi put Al-Fayha in front 57 minutes into the game, set up by Jason Remeseiro, to make it 2-1. Jason Remeseiro added to the tally 66 minutes into the game for Al-Fayha, set up by Fashion Sakala, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Al-Fayha extended the lead through Hugo Moura in the 91st minute, set up by Fashion Sakala, to make it 4-1. 7 players were booked, among them Abdulaziz Al-Bishi (21'), Fábio Luiz Carille de Araujo (29'), Flávio (33'), Hugo Moura (33'), Alexandre Mendy (35') and Abdulrahman Al Safari (56'). On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Al-Fayha are 43 points stronger than Al-Faisaly FC. On current ratings the model puts Al-Fayha at around 1.85 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.78 to 1.16. The card tally for Al-Fayha was three yellow cards. Al-Fayha made four changes. four yellow cards went to Al-Faisaly FC. The substitution total for Al-Faisaly FC was five. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. The winners, Al-Fayha, had been behind.