The stalemate carries 26.4% in a 30.3% / 26.4% / 43.3% distribution.
Higher rating: the away side. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Raw profiles are 0.79 and 1.04 against 1.09 and 0.81. Versus the 1500 seed: +13 and +123. NEOM is ahead on each half — 1.09 to 0.79 in attack, 0.81 to 1.04 in defence. Behind them are 13 and 47 rated matches. Scorelines above 8%: 5. As a single number the model says 0-1. 43.3% goes to NEOM, the model's lean. The distribution runs from 43.3% down to 26.4%. The leading outcome clears the second by 13.0 points. The higher-rated side expects 56.4% of the points; the other side 43.6%. A decisive result carries 73.6% against 26.4% for the draw. The tie closed out 1-2. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 0-1 on 12.9%. The rating gap itself is 110 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The underlying goal expectation is 0.94 for Al Diriyah, 1.54 for NEOM.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
two goals for and six against accompanied Al Diriyah's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. On 23 October, Al Diriyah recorded a 2-0 defeat visiting Al-Ittihad FC.
The 23 October fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al Diriyah with Al-Ittihad FC. Al Diriyah lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Al Riyadh (Saudi Pro League), Al Diriyah finished 1-0 on 20 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 17 October: Al Diriyah drew 1-1 against Al Taawon at home in Saudi Pro League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Al-Nassr in Saudi Pro League, Al Diriyah scored zero and conceded three on 9 October; the away from home result was 0-3. Al Diriyah's at home game on 13 September (Saudi Pro League) ended 0-0 against Abha, with zero goals for and zero against.
NEOM came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding five. A 2-0 win at home to Abha (24 October) was their most recent result.
Saudi Pro League, 24 October brought a home meeting with Abha; NEOM won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. NEOM visited Al-Nassr on 20 October (Saudi Pro League) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Al-Ettifaq travelled to face NEOM (Saudi Pro League) on 17 October. For NEOM, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-1 was NEOM's result against Al-Hazm on 10 October (Saudi Pro League), playing away from home; NEOM drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 13 September fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired NEOM with Al-Fateh. NEOM won 4-2 at home, netting four goals while conceding two.
After the match
NEOM edged past Al Diriyah 2-1 on 30 October 2026. Idrissa Gueye opened the scoring in the 17th minute for Al Diriyah, set up by Darwin Nuñez, to make it 1-0. Saïd Benrahma levelled it from the penalty spot 50 minutes into the game for NEOM to make it 1-1. Alexandre Lacazette put NEOM in front 68 minutes into the game, set up by Saïd Benrahma, to make it 2-1. Muhanad Al Saad (98') was booked. The substitution total for Al Diriyah was four. NEOM picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for NEOM was five. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. NEOM turned a deficit into victory.