Across 6 recorded meetings back to 2023 the split is 2-2-2 from Al Riyadh's side on wins, 7-8 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in Saudi Pro League. The live ratings are 1502 and 1532, giving 41.6% / 26.8% / 31.6%.
Higher rating: the away side. xG: 1.29 to 1.53. Final score: 2-1. Neither figure is thin: 114 and 337 matches respectively sit behind them. Spread across the three results is 14.8 points. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 11.8%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. A 30-point spread sits between the two figures. Someone wins 73.2% of the time by this model. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. In absolute terms: Al Riyadh 0.79/1.38, Al Taawon 0.82/1.10 on attack and defence. Expected shares 55.0% against 45.0% on Elo. Al Riyadh carries the largest share, 41.6%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. First to second is a 10.0-point step, Al Riyadh over Al Taawon. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +2 and +32. Al Taawon is ahead on each half — 0.82 to 0.79 in attack, 1.10 to 1.38 in defence.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
three goals for and seven against accompanied Al Riyadh's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. On 20 October, Al Riyadh recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting Al Diriyah.
The 20 October fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al Riyadh with Al Diriyah. Al Riyadh lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Al-Fayha (Saudi Pro League), Al Riyadh finished 1-1 on 11 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 13 September: Al Riyadh won 2-0 against Al Kholood at home in Saudi Pro League, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Al Khaleej Saihat in Saudi Pro League, Al Riyadh scored zero and conceded zero on 7 September; the away from home result was 0-0. Al Riyadh's away from home game on 4 September (Saudi Pro League) ended 0-5 against Al-Ahli Jeddah, with zero goals for and five against.
Al Taawon arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording one draw and four defeats, scoring one goal and conceding 12, failing to score in four of those games. On 20 October, Al Taawon recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Al Taawon's at home game on 20 October (Saudi Pro League) ended 0-1 against Al-Qadisiyah FC, with zero goals for and one against. On 17 October, Al Diriyah faced Al Taawon in Saudi Pro League: Al Taawon drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Saudi Pro League, 11 October brought an away meeting with Al Shabab; Al Taawon lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded. Al Taawon hosted Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 12 September (Saudi Pro League) and lost 0-6; their goals totalled zero, compared with six conceded. Al-Hazm hosted Al Taawon (Saudi Pro League) on 8 September. For Al Taawon, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-1 draw at Al Taawon on 15 May and a 3-1 away win for Al Taawon on 18 January.
After the match
Al Riyadh edged past Al Taawon 2-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh on 24 October 2026. Teddy Okou opened the scoring in the 39th minute for Al Riyadh, set up by Bernard Mensah, to make it 1-0. Bernard Mensah added to the tally 76 minutes into the game for Al Riyadh to make it 2-0. Nedim Bajrami pulled one back 78 minutes into the game for Al Taawon to make it 1-2. Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji (13') and Ibrahim Mohannashi (93') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Al Taawon slightly the stronger side, by 30 rating points over Al Riyadh, even though it was Al Riyadh who won this one. three changes were recorded for Al Riyadh. two yellow cards went to Al Taawon. The substitution total for Al Taawon was five.