On file: 12 previous meetings dating to 2016, 11-23 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-2 in Saudi Pro League. Against that, current ratings read 1834 and 1955, a 121-point margin, and the model splits the tie 28.9% / 26.0% / 45.1%.
Win-or-lose totals 74.0%; the draw takes the rest. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 8.9%. Al-Hilal Saudi FC holds a 16.2-point edge on the next outcome. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carries the largest share, 45.1%. Raw profiles are 1.73 and 0.80 against 1.88 and 0.60. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-2. With 193 and 415 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Expected goals sit at 1.55 against 2.03. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +334 and +455. The Elo curve splits the expected points 42.0% to 58.0% here. Ratings sit 121 apart. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Both components point the same way, toward Al-Hilal Saudi FC: 1.88 to 1.73 going forward, 0.60 to 0.80 going back. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. It ended 2-3. The distribution runs from 45.1% down to 26.0%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
11 goals for and three against accompanied Al-Qadisiyah FC's four wins and one draw across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 1-0 win away to Al Taawon (20 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 away to Al Kholood on 9 October.
20 October: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 1-0 against Al Taawon away from home in Saudi Pro League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Abha in Saudi Pro League, Al-Qadisiyah FC scored two and conceded one on 16 October; the at home result was 2-1. Al-Qadisiyah FC's away from home game on 12 October (AFC Champions League) ended 1-1 against Pakhtakor, with one goal for and one against. On 9 October, Al Kholood faced Al-Qadisiyah FC in Saudi Pro League: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5-0 away from home, having scored five and conceded zero. AFC Champions League, 14 September brought a home meeting with Al-Wasl FC; Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC: five wins over five games; 14 goals scored, three conceded, keeping three clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 1-0 win at home to Al-Hazm on 19 October; their biggest win in that spell was 6-0 away to Al Taawon on 12 September.
Playing at home against Al-Hazm (Saudi Pro League), Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished 1-0 on 19 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 13 October: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 2-0 against Al Sadd away from home in AFC Champions League, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Al-Ittihad FC in Saudi Pro League, Al-Hilal Saudi FC scored three and conceded two on 10 October; the at home result was 3-2. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's at home game on 15 September (AFC Champions League) ended 2-1 against Al-Gharafa, with two goals for and one against. On 12 September, Al Taawon faced Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Saudi Pro League: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 6-0 away from home, having scored six and conceded zero.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-2 draw at Al-Qadisiyah FC on 29 January and a 2-2 draw at Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 13 September 2025.
After the match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC edged past Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Dammam on 23 October 2026. Gabriel Martinelli opened the scoring in the 21st minute for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, set up by Ollie Watkins, to make it 1-0. Julián Quiñones levelled it in the 31st minute for Al-Qadisiyah FC, set up by Musab Al-Juwayr, to make it 1-1. Al-Hilal Saudi FC regained the lead through Rúben Neves 77 minutes into the game, set up by Sergej Milinković-Savić, to make it 2-1. Sergej Milinković-Savić added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, set up by Sultan Mandash, to make it 3-1. Mateo Retegui pulled one back late on, in the 87th minute for Al-Qadisiyah FC, set up by Tijjani Reijnders, to make it 2-3. Hassan Al-Tambakti (36'), Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat (76') and Rúben Neves (86') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. Expected goals put the gap at 0.72 to 2.86. Al-Qadisiyah FC picked up one yellow card. Al-Qadisiyah FC: three substitutions. The card tally for Al-Hilal Saudi FC was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Al-Hilal Saudi FC.