A 202-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 73.0% / 18.7% / 8.4% distribution.
Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +236 and +34. In absolute terms: Al-Ittihad FC 1.39/0.93, Al Diriyah 0.79/0.89 on attack and defence. With 353 and 11 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Someone wins 81.4% of the time by this model. Played and finished 2-0. One edge each: scoring to Al-Ittihad FC (1.39 v 0.79), conceding to Al Diriyah (0.89 v 0.93). Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Elo expected shares: 82.3% and 17.7%. Expected goals come out at 1.83 to 0.99. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Flat distribution — 1-0 tops it at just 10.9%. The leading outcome clears the second by 54.3 points. A 202-point spread sits between the two figures. Higher rating: the home side. The model's preferred outcome is Al-Ittihad FC at 73.0%. Between best and worst outcome there is 64.6 points of daylight. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-0.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Ittihad FC: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; 11 goals scored, eight conceded. Latest: a 4-1 win away to Al-Ettifaq on 20 October.
Playing away from home against Al-Ettifaq (Saudi Pro League), Al-Ittihad FC finished 4-1 on 20 October. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition. 13 October: Al-Ittihad FC lost 1-2 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home in AFC Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Saudi Pro League, Al-Ittihad FC scored two and conceded three on 10 October; the away from home result was 2-3. Al-Ittihad FC's away from home game on 14 September (AFC Champions League) ended 1-1 against Al Shamal, with one goal for and one against. On 11 September, Al-Faisaly FC faced Al-Ittihad FC in Saudi Pro League: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-1 away from home, having scored three and conceded one.
Al Diriyah's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 5 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 win at home to Al Riyadh on 20 October.
On 20 October, Al Riyadh faced Al Diriyah in Saudi Pro League: Al Diriyah won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. Saudi Pro League, 17 October brought a home meeting with Al Taawon; Al Diriyah drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Al Diriyah visited Al-Nassr on 9 October (Saudi Pro League) and lost 0-3; their goals totalled zero, compared with three conceded. Abha travelled to face Al Diriyah (Saudi Pro League) on 13 September. For Al Diriyah, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 2-1 was Al Diriyah's result against Al-Fateh on 9 September (Saudi Pro League), playing away from home; Al Diriyah won, with two scored to one conceded.
After the match
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Diriyah 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah on 23 October 2026. George Ilenikhena opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Al-Ittihad FC to make it 1-0. Georginio Wijnaldum added to the tally from the penalty spot 77 minutes into the game for Al-Ittihad FC to make it 2-0. 8 players were booked, among them Saad Al-Mousa (6'), Mukhtar Ali (24'), Óscar Rodríguez (35'), George Ilenikhena (42'), Berat Djimsiti (57') and Enzo Millot (58'). Al-Ittihad FC: 73% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Expected goals put the gap at 2.72 to 0.7. Al-Ittihad FC picked up three yellow cards. Al-Ittihad FC: five substitutions. The card tally for Al Diriyah was five yellow cards. Al Diriyah made five changes. Al-Ittihad FC kept their opponents scoreless.