On file: 10 previous meetings dating to 2018, 12-11 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-0 in Saudi Pro League. History aside, the live ratings of 1482 and 1476 drive a 47.4% / 25.5% / 27.1% distribution.
A 20.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The model gives 74.5% to someone winning. Attack/defence pairs: 0.84/1.17 and 0.86/1.22. As a single number the model says 1-1. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Top of the distribution: Al-Hazm, 47.4%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.6%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -18 and -24. Distance between the ratings: 6 points, narrow on this scale. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 169 and 267 rated matches respectively. The home side is rated higher. The match finished 2-2. Expected goals sit at 1.52 against 1.35. The distribution runs from 47.4% down to 25.5%. Al-Hazm's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 60.1%. Neither side holds a component edge worth the name: scoring rates of 0.84 against 0.86, conceding rates of 1.17 against 1.22.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and eight against accompanied Al-Hazm's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. A 1-0 defeat away to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (19 October) was their most recent result.
Al-Hazm's away from home game on 19 October (Saudi Pro League) ended 0-1 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC, with zero goals for and one against. On 15 October, Al-Fateh faced Al-Hazm in Saudi Pro League: Al-Hazm lost 2-3 at home, having scored two and conceded three. Saudi Pro League, 10 October brought a home meeting with NEOM; Al-Hazm drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Al-Hazm visited Al-Ahli Jeddah on 11 September (Saudi Pro League) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded. Al Taawon travelled to face Al-Hazm (Saudi Pro League) on 8 September. For Al-Hazm, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed.
Al-Fayha: two draws and three defeats over five games; four goals scored, eight conceded, without a win. Latest: a 3-2 defeat at home to Al-Ahli Jeddah on 19 October.
Against Al-Ahli Jeddah in Saudi Pro League, Al-Fayha scored two and conceded three on 19 October; the at home result was 2-3. Al-Fayha's away from home game on 15 October (Saudi Pro League) ended 0-2 against Al Khaleej Saihat, with zero goals for and two against. On 11 October, Al Riyadh faced Al-Fayha in Saudi Pro League: Al-Fayha drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. Saudi Pro League, 12 September brought an away meeting with Al Shabab; Al-Fayha drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Al-Fayha visited Al-Ittihad FC on 8 September (Saudi Pro League) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-0 home win for Al-Hazm on 11 April and a 0-0 draw at Al-Fayha on 25 December 2025.
After the match
Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha drew 2-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Rass on 22 October 2026. Bonheur Mugisha opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for Al-Hazm, set up by Amir Saâyoud, to make it 1-0. Fashion Sakala levelled it in the 33rd minute for Al-Fayha, set up by Jason Remeseiro, to make it 1-1. Sultan Tanker (an own goal) put Al-Fayha in front 69 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Al-Hazm drew level through Amir Saâyoud from the penalty spot late on, in the 89th minute to make it 2-2. Sofiane Bendebka (59') and Ali Al-Hussain (66') were booked. Expected goals put the gap at 2.18 to 0.98. Al-Hazm: one yellow card. Al-Hazm made four changes. one yellow card went to Al-Fayha. Al-Fayha: three substitutions. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence.