Prior record: 2-3-7 across 12 since 2016. Most recent 2022, 0-4 in Saudi Pro League. Currently 1499 against 1852 — a 7.0% / 17.9% / 75.0% split.
Spread thin across outcomes, 0-2 highest at 11.2%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -1 and +352. Scorelines above 8%: 4. In absolute terms: Al-Faisaly FC 0.73/1.11, Al-Nassr 1.74/0.74 on attack and defence. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Neither component contradicts the other: Al-Nassr leads 1.74-0.73 forward and 0.74-1.11 back. xG: 0.80 to 2.60. 75.0% goes to Al-Nassr, the model's lean. Final score: 1-3. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 189 and 384 rated matches respectively. The higher rating expects 84.0% of the points, the lower 16.0%. The distribution runs from 75.0% down to 7.0%. The two ratings differ by 353 points. First to second is a 57.1-point step, Al-Nassr over the draw. 82.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Point estimate: 0-2. Higher rating: the away side.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Faisaly FC came into the game with one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding seven. On 19 October, Al-Faisaly FC recorded a 2-2 draw visiting Al Shabab.
Al Shabab hosted Al-Faisaly FC (Saudi Pro League) on 19 October. For Al-Faisaly FC, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 3-2 was Al-Faisaly FC's result against Al Kholood on 15 October (Saudi Pro League), playing at home; Al-Faisaly FC won, with three scored to two conceded. The 11 September fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al-Faisaly FC with Al-Ittihad FC. Al-Faisaly FC lost 1-3 at home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing away from home against Al-Ettifaq (Saudi Pro League), Al-Faisaly FC finished 0-0 on 8 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 5 September: Al-Faisaly FC drew 0-0 against Al-Hazm at home in Saudi Pro League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero.
Al-Nassr's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 6 conceded. NEOM were their latest opponents, at home on 20 October: a 1-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Al Diriyah on 9 October.
On 20 October, NEOM faced Al-Nassr in Saudi Pro League: Al-Nassr won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. AFC Champions League, 12 October brought a home meeting with Neftchi; Al-Nassr won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Al-Nassr hosted Al Diriyah on 9 October (Saudi Pro League) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. Al Ain hosted Al-Nassr (AFC Champions League) on 15 September. For Al-Nassr, the score was 0-4: zero goals scored, four allowed. 1-1 was Al-Nassr's result against Al Khaleej Saihat on 12 September (Saudi Pro League), playing away from home; Al-Nassr drew, with one scored to one conceded.
Previous meetings in our records: a 4-0 home win for Al-Nassr on 15 January 2022 and a 2-1 home win for Al-Faisaly FC on 19 August 2021.
After the match
Al-Nassr beat Al-Faisaly FC 3-1 on 23 October 2026. Abdullah Al-Hamdan opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Al-Nassr, set up by Sadio Mané, to make it 1-0. Cristiano Ronaldo added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for Al-Nassr, set up by Joao Felix, to make it 2-0. Theo Bongonda pulled one back 66 minutes into the game for Al-Faisaly FC, set up by Mohammed Ali Al Shanqiti, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Al-Nassr extended the lead through Angelo Borges 79 minutes into the game, set up by Abdullah Al-Hamdan, to make it 3-1. Awad Aman (14') and Samu Costa (24') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Nassr 353 points stronger than Al-Faisaly FC. Al-Nassr's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 75% for a win in this pairing. Al-Nassr's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.28 to 0.62. five changes were recorded for Al-Faisaly FC. Al-Nassr picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Al-Nassr was five.