Prior record: 6-2-0 across 8 since 2016. Most recent 2026, 4-1 in Saudi Pro League. Currently 1866 against 1491 — a 85.2% / 13.8% / 1.0% split.
Ratings sit 375 apart. Attack/defence pairs: 1.85/0.76 and 0.86/1.36. As a single number the model says 3-0. The ratings draw on 357 and 169 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +366 and -9. Expected goals sit at 3.74 against 0.88. The leading outcome clears the second by 71.4 points. Top of the distribution: Al-Ahli Jeddah, 85.2%. Spread across the three results is 84.2 points. Higher rating: the home side. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The match finished 4-1. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 3-0 at 8.6%. 86.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Al-Ahli Jeddah holds both halves of the profile — 1.85 against 0.86 for scoring, 0.76 against 1.36 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. By expected share of the points: 92.6% and 7.4%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Ahli Jeddah's previous five results comprised four wins and one draw. Their goal totals were 14 scored and 5 conceded, with no defeats. Al-Fayha were their latest opponents, away on 19 October: a 3-2 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Al-Fateh on 9 October.
Against Al-Fayha in Saudi Pro League, Al-Ahli Jeddah scored three and conceded two on 19 October; the away from home result was 3-2. Al-Ahli Jeddah's away from home game on 12 October (AFC Champions League) ended 3-1 against Al-Wasl FC, with three goals for and one against. On 9 October, Al-Fateh faced Al-Ahli Jeddah in Saudi Pro League: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 away from home, having scored four and conceded zero. AFC Champions League, 14 September brought a home meeting with Pakhtakor; Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah hosted Al-Hazm on 11 September (Saudi Pro League) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded.
Al Khaleej Saihat were unbeaten in their last five games, with two wins and three draws, scoring seven goals and conceding four. On 18 October, Al Khaleej Saihat recorded a 3-2 win visiting Al-Fateh.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away from home game on 18 October (Saudi Pro League) ended 3-2 against Al-Fateh, with three goals for and two against. On 15 October, Al-Fayha faced Al Khaleej Saihat in Saudi Pro League: Al Khaleej Saihat won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. Saudi Pro League, 10 October brought an away meeting with Al-Ettifaq; Al Khaleej Saihat drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Al Khaleej Saihat hosted Al-Nassr on 12 September (Saudi Pro League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Al Riyadh travelled to face Al Khaleej Saihat (Saudi Pro League) on 7 September. For Al Khaleej Saihat, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
The last two recorded meetings were a 4-1 away win for Al-Ahli Jeddah on 20 May and a 4-1 home win for Al-Ahli Jeddah on 20 January.
After the match
Al-Ahli Jeddah comfortably beat Al Khaleej Saihat 4-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah on 23 October 2026. Ivan Toney opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Al-Ahli Jeddah, set up by Eduard Spertsyan, to make it 1-0. Artem Bondarenko added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Al-Ahli Jeddah, set up by Francisco Trincão, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Al-Ahli Jeddah extended the lead through Francisco Trincão 61 minutes into the game, set up by Ivan Toney, to make it 3-0. Thamer Al-Khaibri got one back late on, in the 87th minute for Al Khaleej Saihat, set up by Hussain Al Issa, to make it 1-3. Ivan Toney scored the 5th goal for Al-Ahli Jeddah from the penalty spot in the 96th minute as they extended the lead to make it 4-1. Mateo Benegas (69') was sent off. Ahmad Asiri (9'), Mohammed Al-Khabrani (23') and Joshua King (48') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Ahli Jeddah 375 points stronger than Al Khaleej Saihat. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Al-Ahli Jeddah: 85.2% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Al-Ahli Jeddah's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. Expected goals put the gap at 3.39 to 0.51. The substitution total for Al-Ahli Jeddah was five. The card tally for Al Khaleej Saihat was three yellow cards and one red card. five changes were recorded for Al Khaleej Saihat.