2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2026, aggregate 1-1. The latest was 2026, 1-1 in Saudi Pro League. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1589 and 1598 — 9 points — for a 45.0% / 26.0% / 29.0% split.
Ratings sit 9 apart. The distribution runs from 45.0% down to 26.0%. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. As a single number the model says 1-1. The leading outcome clears the second by 16.0 points. The away side is rated higher. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.6%. Raw profiles are 1.02 and 0.88 against 1.08 and 1.04. It ended 0-1. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 43 and 313 rated matches respectively. The edge is split: Al-Ettifaq scores at the higher rate (1.08 to 1.02), NEOM concedes at the lower (0.88 to 1.04). Top of the distribution: NEOM, 45.0%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. 74.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The underlying goal expectation is 1.58 for NEOM, 1.27 for Al-Ettifaq. Al-Ettifaq's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 42.0%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +89 and +98.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
ten goals for and four against accompanied NEOM's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 10 October, NEOM recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Al-Hazm; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Al Khaleej Saihat on 3 September.
The 10 October fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired NEOM with Al-Hazm. NEOM drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Al-Fateh (Saudi Pro League), NEOM finished 4-2 on 13 September. Their score comprised four goals, against two from the opposition. 7 September: NEOM won 2-0 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home in Saudi Pro League, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Al Khaleej Saihat in Saudi Pro League, NEOM scored three and conceded zero on 3 September; the at home result was 3-0. NEOM's away from home game on 28 August (Saudi Pro League) ended 0-1 against Al Riyadh, with zero goals for and one against.
Al-Ettifaq came into the game with one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding seven. On 10 October, Al-Ettifaq recorded a 1-1 draw hosting Al Khaleej Saihat.
Al-Ettifaq's at home game on 10 October (Saudi Pro League) ended 1-1 against Al Khaleej Saihat, with one goal for and one against. On 11 September, Al-Qadisiyah FC faced Al-Ettifaq in Saudi Pro League: Al-Ettifaq drew 3-3 away from home, having scored three and conceded three. Saudi Pro League, 8 September brought a home meeting with Al-Faisaly FC; Al-Ettifaq drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Al-Ettifaq visited Abha on 4 September (Saudi Pro League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Al Diriyah travelled to face Al-Ettifaq (Saudi Pro League) on 29 August. For Al-Ettifaq, the score was 0-3: zero goals scored, three allowed.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-1 draw at NEOM on 21 May and a 0-0 draw at Al-Ettifaq on 21 January.
After the match
Al-Ettifaq edged past NEOM 1-0 at King Khalid Sport City Stadium, Tabuk on 17 October 2026. Abdullah Al-Khateeb opened the scoring late on, in the 82nd minute for Al-Ettifaq, set up by Ziyad Abdullah Al-Ghamdi, to make it 1-0. Alexandre Lacazette (32'), Abdoulaye Kanté (60') and Matija Gluscevic (81') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Al-Ettifaq only a 29% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Al-Ettifaq are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.72 to 0.12. Al-Ettifaq won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win. one yellow card went to NEOM. NEOM: five substitutions. Al-Ettifaq: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Al-Ettifaq. A clean sheet for Al-Ettifaq.